Grantham said his own estimate of a one-third chance that Brexit would not happen still looked good.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
A probability estimate (one-third chance) of a single outcome that is not testable as right or wrong; also Brexit did happen but the estimate itself can't be falsified.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Grantham said his own estimate of a one-third chance that Brexit would not happen still looked good.” (said 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_fd2cd7c31f6a, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fd2cd7c31f6a
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
-
Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
-
Mixed
“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
-
Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
-
Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
-
Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.