Oil and resource prices appeared to have bottomed out in 2016 and seem likely to have favorable comparisons for a few quarters.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The claim has two parts: (a) oil and broader resource or commodity prices bottomed in 2016, meaning the 2016 lows were not broken during 2017; and (b) during 2017, for at least a few quarters (about two or three or more), year-over-year comparisons for resource prices, and the resulting profits of energy and materials companies, were favourable. TRUE if both hold: Brent/WTI and a broad commodity index stayed above their 2016 lows throughout 2017, and year-over-year price and energy/materials earnings comparisons were positive for at least the first two or three quarters of 2017. MOSTLY TRUE if both hold broadly but one resource group or one quarter was an exception. MIXED if only one part holds, e.g. prices held above their 2016 lows but year-over-year comparisons were favourable for only one quarter. MOSTLY FALSE if oil held its 2016 low but resource prices broadly, or the comparisons, were mostly unfavourable. FALSE if oil and resource prices fell below their 2016 lows during 2017 and year-over-year comparisons were negative.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (5)
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E1 Brent Crude Oil - BZ price history, 1 day charts, Current Prices - WalletInvestor.com WalletInvestor.com
“| 2017 | $57.05 | $66.60 | $67.08 | $44.36 | +16.74% | | 2016 | $37.40 | $56.13 | $57.49 | $27.11 | +50.08% |”
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E2 Earnings Insight FactSet Insight (John Butters, Senior Earnings Analyst) · 5 May 2017
“Ten sectors are reporting year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Energy, Financials, Materials, and Information Technology sectors.”
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E3 Earnings Insight FactSet Insight (John Butters, Senior Earnings Analyst) · 5 May 2017
“On a dollar-level basis, the Energy sector is reporting earnings of $8.5 billion in Q1 2017, compared to a loss of -1.5 billion”
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E4 Earnings Insight FactSet Insight (John Butters, Senior Earnings Analyst) · 5 May 2017
“On the other hand, the Oil & Gas Drilling (-210%) and Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (-14%) sub-industries are the only two sub-industries that are reporting or have reported”
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E5 Earnings Insight FactSet Insight (John Butters, Senior Earnings Analyst) · 5 May 2017
“The Energy sector is reporting the highest (year-over-year) revenue growth of all eleven sectors at 34.1%.”
Reasoning
FactSet's May 2017 Earnings Insight (E2, E3, E5) shows favourable year-over-year comparisons for energy in Q1 2017: earnings of $8.5 billion against a loss a year earlier, the highest revenue growth of any sector at 34.1%, and Materials among the sectors leading earnings growth. E4 notes that two oil sub-industries reported declines. That covers only one quarter, and no evidence covers Q2 or Q3 2017 or a broad commodity index. The Brent table in E1 is an unlabelled annual row, since its column headers are not in the quote, so under the criteria it cannot settle whether 2016 lows held through 2017. Neither part of the claim can be fully settled, so it is left unresolved.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Oil and resource prices appeared to have bottomed out in 2016 and seem likely to have favorable comparisons for a few quarters.” (said 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_fc6191dfe1b2, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fc6191dfe1b2
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Resolved true
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.