The inflation-adjusted trendline value of the S&P 500 will be about 3200 by the end of 2023.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge at end-2023. Use the S&P 500 inflation-adjusted trendline value that GMO or Grantham stated for end-2023 in later publications, or one recomputed on GMO's stated method using realised inflation. 'About 3200' allows roughly ±5% (about 3040–3360). True: the trendline value for end-2023 falls within that band. Mostly true: it falls within ±10% (about 2880–3520). Mostly false: it falls within ±15%. False: it is more than 15% away from 3200. The actual S&P 500 price level is not the test; the trendline value is.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
-
E1 You don’t need to forecast to be a successful investor. Roger Montgomery (rogermontgomery.com) · 14 March 2024
“3200 would be a decline of just 16.7 per cent for 2023 and with 4 per cent inflation assumed for the year would total a 20 per cent real decline for 2023”
-
E2 Wall Street Veteran Who Predicted The 2000 Tech Bubble, 2008 Subprime Crisis, Doubts Fed's Ability To Sidestep Looming Recession Benzinga · 18 August 2023
“The expert forecasted that the S&P 500’s trendline value would hover around 3,200 by year-end, standing over 1,000 points lower than its present level.”
-
E3 Newsletter Volume 16, No. 1 February 2023 Advisor Perspectives · 7 March 2023
“And from Jeremy Grantham (1/26), “Most of the superbubbles go below trend and stay there for quite a while. This time, the trend is at most 2,500.”
-
E4 Consumer Price Index News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 12 January 2024
“Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal”
Reasoning
The evidence restates the forecast of about 3,200 [E3] and gives realised 2023 inflation [E5], but no item gives an end-2023 trendline value stated later by GMO or Grantham, or one recomputed on GMO's stated method. E2's 4% figure is not shown to be the trendline's inflation input, and E4 quotes Grantham giving a different trend figure of at most 2,500.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “The inflation-adjusted trendline value of the S&P 500 will be about 3200 by the end of 2023.” (said January 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_f6592243684a, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f6592243684a
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
-
Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
-
Mixed
“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
-
Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
-
Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
-
Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.