There is at least a 1 in 4 chance that China stumbles economically in the next year or so.

The claim gives a probability of at least 25% that China 'stumbles economically' within about a year of April 2011, so by the end of 2012 at the latest. A 'stumble' means a clear economic setback: a sharp, widely reported slowdown or hard landing (for example real GDP growth falling well below the official 7.5–8% target range), a financial or property-market crisis, or a recognised growth scare treated as a stumble by mainstream analysts. True: such a stumble occurred within the window. Mixed: China slowed noticeably and there were widely reported hard-landing fears, but analysts generally did not regard it as a stumble. Mostly false: no stumble occurred and growth stayed steady. Because Grantham gave only a minority probability, this outcome does not refute the claim outright. False: this is reserved for evidence that at the time the risk was negligible by any reasonable measure (e.g. consensus forecasts and markets placed essentially no weight on it), together with no stumble.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Bad China, good weather will bust commodity market 'en masse,' Grantham says InvestmentNews · 26 May 2011

   “Jeremy Grantham said there is a 25 percent chance that China, the world's second-largest economy, will “stumble” by next year over imbalances such as too much capital spending, an overheating real estate market or accelerating inflation.”

2. E2 China's Economy is Slowly Becoming More Normal Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (commentary by Pieter Bottelier) · 26 July 2012

   “Taking this into account, the government reported 7.6 percent year-over-year GDP growth for the second quarter of 2012, down from 8.1 percent year-over-year growth for the first quarter.”

3. E3 National Economy Maintained Steady and Fast Development in the Year of 2011 National Bureau of Statistics of China · 17 January 2012

   “According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 47,156.4 billion yuan in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 9.2 percent at comparable prices.”

4. E4 China's Economy is Slowly Becoming More Normal Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (commentary by Pieter Bottelier) · 26 July 2012

   “Seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth conveys a more optimistic picture.”

The evidence shows China's official GDP growth at 9.2% in 2011 [E3] and 7.6% year-on-year in Q2 2012, down from 8.1% in Q1 [E2]. It does not cover the second half of 2012, property or financial-market conditions, or how analysts viewed the slowdown, so it does not establish whether a stumble occurred within the window.