Agricultural commodity prices are generally expected to fall in 2012 if the weather improves.

This is a conditional prediction about 2012. It resolves in one of two ways depending on whether the condition held. (A) The condition held: the weather in the major grain and oilseed regions (US, South America, Black Sea, Australia) was better in the 2012 crop year than in 2011. Then compare a broad agricultural price index for calendar 2012 with 2011, using the FAO Food Price Index or its cereals and oils sub-indices, the S&P GSCI Agriculture or the World Bank agriculture index. True: the 2012 average is clearly below the 2011 average. Mostly true: it fell only slightly (under about 3%), or most major crops fell but a minority rose. Mostly false: prices were roughly flat or mixed. False: prices clearly rose. (B) The condition did not hold: major adverse weather occurred in 2012, such as a major drought in a key producing region. Then the price test does not apply, and the claim is judged on its descriptive part, that falling prices were 'generally expected'. True: forecasts published in 2011 to early 2012 by the World Bank, FAO, USDA or IMF generally projected lower 2012 agricultural prices assuming normal weather. Mixed: these forecasts were split. False: they generally projected higher prices. In case B, rising 2012 prices do not by themselves make the claim false.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Commodity Market Outlook (Global Economic Prospects), January 2013 World Bank · January 2013

   “Maize and wheat prices spiked as parts of the United States, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia were gripped by a summer heat wave.”

2. E2 Global food prices 'drop 7% in 2012': UN agency phys.org (AFP) · 10 January 2013

   “The Rome-based FAO's Food Price Index averaged 212 points in 2012, a drop of 7.0 percent owing largely to falls in the prices of sugar, dairy products and oil.”

3. E3 Global Economic Prospects: Commodity Market Outlook World Bank (Development Prospects Group) · January 2013

   “Maize and wheat prices spiked as parts of the United States, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia were gripped by a summer heat wave.”

4. E4 Global Economic Prospects: Commodity Market Outlook World Bank (Development Prospects Group) · January 2013

   “Agricultural commodity prices are also forecast to decline: food by 3.2 percent, beverages by 4.7 percent,”

5. E5 Global Economic Prospects January 2011: Annex (Prospects for global commodity markets) World Bank · January 2011

   “Agricultural prices are expected to decline by 8 percent in 2011, followed by a further 3.7 percent decline in 2012 (Table S4.1).”

6. E6 Global Economic Prospects January 2011: Annex (Prospects for global commodity markets) World Bank · January 2011

   “Agricultural commodities are expected to decline 8 percent (they increased 17 percent from 2009 to 2010), assuming a return to normal crops and”

The condition did not hold, so case B applies. A summer heat wave hit parts of the United States, Eastern Europe and Central Asia in 2012, and maize and wheat prices spiked (E1). The claim is therefore judged on whether lower 2012 prices were generally expected. The World Bank's January 2011 outlook projected agricultural prices falling 8% in 2011, assuming a return to normal crops, and a further 3.7% in 2012 (E8, E9). That supports the expectation of falling prices, but the evidence covers only one of the four named forecasters (World Bank, FAO, USDA, IMF), so it does not fully show the expectation was general.