Grantham guessed that before the end of 2010 the US market would fall painfully (which he defined as at least 15%) from its October 2009 levels.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judged at 2010-12-31. Reference level: the S&P 500 level at the date of the letter in October 2009 (if no exact date, the average October 2009 close). True: the S&P 500 closed at or below 85% of the reference level (a fall of at least 15%) on at least one day between the letter and 31 December 2010. Mostly true: a fall of at least 15% occurred on an intraday basis only, or the closing decline was at least 14.5%. Mostly false: the largest decline from the reference level was 10% to 14.5%, or a fall of at least 15% came only after 2010. False: the index never fell more than 10% below the reference level during the period.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (7)
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E1 S&P 500 Return in 2010: +12.8% (+15.1% with Dividends) historyofmarket.com
“The highest close of the year was 1,259.78 on December 29, 2010; the lowest was 1,022.58 on July 2, 2010.”
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E2 S&P 500 Return in 2010: +12.8% (+15.1% with Dividends) historyofmarket.com
“The deepest fall from a peak within the year was −16.0%, bottoming on July 2, 2010.”
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E3 Sandp 500 Lowest Price 2010 | StatMuse Money StatMuse
“The lowest closing price for the S&P 500 (GSPC) in 2010 was $1,022.58, on July 2, 2010.”
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E4 Standard & Poor's 500 Index History fedprimerate.com
“| July 2, 2010 | 1,022.58 |”
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E5 Stocks tumble on recovery jitters, financials IBTimes (Reuters story) · 30 October 2009
“The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> tumbled 29.92 points, or 2.81 percent, to 1,036.19.”
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E6 Stocks mixed on last day of year NBC News (AP) · 31 December 2010
“The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 0.24 to 1,257.64, but still finished with its best December gain since 1991, up 6.5 percent.”
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E7 Stocks mixed on last day of year NBC News (AP) · 31 December 2010
“The Dow fell 14 percent from a high of 11,205.03 on April 26 to its low of 9,686.48 on July 2.”
Reasoning
The evidence gives the lowest 2010 close (1,022.58 on 2 July 2010) [E1][E3] and S&P 500 levels for only two days in October 2009 [E5]. It gives neither the letter's date, the average October 2009 close nor any closes from November–December 2009, so the size of the largest fall from the reference level cannot be established under the criteria.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Grantham guessed that before the end of 2010 the US market would fall painfully (which he defined as at least 15%) from its October 2009 levels.” (said October 2009). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_c7b612a130bb, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c7b612a130bb
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
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Mixed
“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
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Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
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Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.