The case for partial regression of rates hinges on the possibility that the 1945-2005 post-war era will turn out to have been a golden era of global growth that will not be equaled again for at least a couple of decades.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
'At least a couple of decades' is vague and gives no clear horizon, and the claim is framed as a possibility on which a case hinges, not as a direct forecast.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “The case for partial regression of rates hinges on the possibility that the 1945-2005 post-war era will turn out to have been a golden era of global growth that will not be equaled again for at least a couple of decades.” (said 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_b18074e6f4b5, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b18074e6f4b5
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
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Mixed
“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
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Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
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Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.