It is nearly certain that a V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis looks like a lost hope.

Test: was the economic recovery from the 2020 coronavirus downturn V-shaped, meaning a sharp rebound with real GDP regaining its pre-pandemic peak (Q4 2019) within about four quarters of the trough (by Q2 2021 inclusive)? Use U.S. real GDP as the main measure, and global/major-economy GDP and employment as context. True (no V): U.S. real GDP took clearly longer than four quarters after the trough to regain its pre-pandemic peak, and most major economies were also slow. Mostly true: U.S. GDP recovered at about the four-quarter mark but employment or most other major economies recovered clearly more slowly, so the recovery is widely described as incomplete or K-/U-shaped. Mixed: U.S. GDP recovery was V-shaped but global output and employment were not, or commentators are split. Mostly false: U.S. and most major economies' GDP regained the prior peak within four quarters, and only employment lagged. False: output and employment broadly rebounded to pre-pandemic levels within about four quarters of the trough, and the recovery is widely described as V-shaped.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 11 facts on the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic - The Hamilton Project The Hamilton Project

   “Across the labor market, employment is still down 5.3 million from February 2020 and down about 9 million from where trends in employment were headed to prior to the pandemic.”

2. E2 11 facts on the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic - The Hamilton Project The Hamilton Project

   “Nonetheless, through 2023 the cumulative shortfall in real output relative to a pre-pandemic projection is expected to total about $400 billion in 2012 dollars (CBO 2020a, 2021c).”

3. E3 11 facts on the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic - The Hamilton Project The Hamilton Project

   “Note that CBO’s projections show a soft landing, with real GDP showing only modest growth by late 2022.”

4. E4 11 facts on the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic - The Hamilton Project The Hamilton Project

   “Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that real GDP will grow 7.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (CBO 2021c).”

5. E5 11 facts on the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic - The Hamilton Project The Hamilton Project (Brookings)

   “Across the labor market, employment is still down 5.3 million from February 2020 and down about 9 million from where trends in employment were headed to prior to the pandemic.”

6. E6 11 facts on the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic - The Hamilton Project The Hamilton Project (Brookings)

   “Leisure and hospitality has added back more than 6.5 million jobs so far; as a result, it is still 10 percent short of returning to its pre-pandemic level, and even farther below its expected level in the absence of the pandemic.”

7. E7 11 facts on the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic - The Hamilton Project The Hamilton Project (Brookings)

   “Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that real GDP will grow 7.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (CBO 2021c).”

8. E8 11 facts on the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic - The Hamilton Project The Hamilton Project (Brookings)

   “Note that CBO’s projections show a soft landing, with real GDP showing only modest growth by late 2022.”

9. E9 Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · 29 July 2021

   “Real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 is 0.8 percent above the level of real GDP for the fourth quarter of 20192.”

10. E10 Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · 29 July 2021

    “For the period of contraction from the fourth quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2020, real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 19.2 percent, the same as previously published.”

BEA places the contraction from Q4 2019 to a Q2 2020 trough (E10) and reports Q2 2021 real GDP 0.8 percent above Q4 2019 (E9), so U.S. output regained its prior peak right at the four-quarter mark. However, the Hamilton Project reports employment still 5.3 million below February 2020 and leisure and hospitality jobs 10 percent short of pre-pandemic levels (E1, E6), showing employment recovered clearly more slowly. This matches the 'mostly true' tier: GDP recovered at about four quarters but employment lagged. No evidence covers other major economies.