In 10 years the current bubble may well be described as the private equity bubble, as 2000 is thought of as the internet bubble.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2017. The question is whether, by then, the market excess of about 2007 was commonly described as a 'private equity bubble' in the way 2000 is called the internet bubble. True: by 2017, mainstream financial commentary, histories or academic work commonly labelled the 2007 episode the 'private equity bubble' as a standard or leading name. Mostly true: the label was widely used for the period, though alongside other names. Mixed: the term was used in a meaningful number of serious sources, but the period was mainly known by other names such as the housing, credit or subprime bubble. Mostly false: a private-equity or LBO bubble around 2007 was noted only occasionally or as a sub-theme, and the episode was overwhelmingly called the housing/credit bubble or the Global Financial Crisis. False: the label was essentially unused for the period. The strong hedge ('may well') is taken into account by testing whether the description was in widespread use, not whether it was the only one.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Why the private equity bubble is bursting | Fortune Fortune · 7 August 2007
“It’s looking more and more as if the private equity phenomenon was a classic Wall Street bubble.”
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E2 ‘LBO bubble, what bubble?’ - Pensions: An International Journal Palgrave Macmillan (Pensions: An International Journal), by K. Lichtner · 19 May 2008
“The media suggests there is an LBO bubble: too much money is chasing too few deals; increased leverage has increased risk too much and there is an unsustainable private equity bubble forming.”
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E3 Private Equity: Doomed to Repeat the Boom and Bust Institutional Investor · 9 April 2010
“Froth and heady fees have marked the peak of every investment boom in private equity, and the recent credit bubble is no exception.”
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E4 25 Years of Benchmark-Free Investing GMO · 23 July 2026 Own record
“By 2007, the loose monetary policy that enabled speculation in real estate had encouraged investors to bid up risk assets, creating what Jeremy Grantham dubbed the “Everything Bubble.””
Reasoning
In 2007–2008 the 'private equity bubble' and 'LBO bubble' labels did appear (Fortune, E1; Lichtner, E2). A 2010 Institutional Investor retrospective calls the private equity boom part of 'the recent credit bubble' (E3), which treats private equity as a sub-theme. GMO, Grantham's own firm, later says he called the period the 'Everything Bubble' (E4), not a private equity bubble. The evidence is limited but points to the period being known mainly by other names, with the private equity label used only occasionally.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “In 10 years the current bubble may well be described as the private equity bubble, as 2000 is thought of as the internet bubble.” (said April 2007). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_a3cc8c9331bc, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a3cc8c9331bc
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
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Mixed
“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
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Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
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Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.