The rising market will be stopped, by Grantham's blind guess in the first few months of 2010, by a combination of factors.

The claim is that the rising US stock market would be stopped in the first few months of 2010 (about January–April). True: the S&P 500 (or a broad US index) set a peak in that window and then fell significantly (a decline of roughly 10% or more from that peak), ending the rally that began in 2009. Mostly true: a peak and a significant decline began in that window, but the decline was somewhat short of 10% or the peak fell slightly outside a strict reading of 'first few months' (no later than April 2010). Mostly false: the market kept rising through the window and only stalled or corrected later in 2010, or saw only a minor dip (under about 5%) in the window. False: the market continued rising through the first half of 2010 with no notable halt.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Stock Market Corrections: Unsettling But Not Unusual Fidelity Management & Research Company (Market Analysis, Research & Education) · 21 May 2010

   “the market has offi cially entered correction territory for the fi rst time since the cyclical bull market began”

2. E2 Late gain ends volatile week for stock market NBC News · 21 May 2010

   “Despite a late-day comeback on Friday, major stock indexes are down about 10 percent from the peak they reached in late April.”

3. E3 Web Site Hollywood Police Officers' Retirement System (Police Pension News, Issue 35) · July 2010

   “the S&P 500 dropped 15.3% from its peak in April and finished down 11.3% for the quarter.”

4. E4 S And P 500 Monthly Returns From 2010 | StatMuse Money StatMuse

   “| the S&P 500 (GSPC) | May 2010 | -8.34% |”

E2 reports that by May 21, 2010 major US stock indexes were down about 10 percent from a peak reached in late April, and E1 says the market had entered correction territory for the first time since the bull market began. E3 states the S&P 500 dropped 15.3% from its April peak and finished the second quarter down 11.3%. A late-April 2010 peak falls inside the criteria's January–April window, and the decline that followed exceeded 10%, which meets the 'true' standard.