He sees the biggest risk as an extended economic recovery, which he expects to last two more years, that might start to push up wages enough to count.

The claim has two parts: (a) the US economic expansion continues for about two more years, through the end of 2018, with no recession; (b) over that period wage growth rises enough to matter. For (b), count a clear acceleration in US nominal wage growth from its 2016 pace, for example average hourly earnings or the Employment Cost Index growth rising from about 2.5% a year to about 3% or more by 2018. TRUE: both hold, meaning no NBER-dated recession starting before the end of 2018 and a clear wage acceleration of that kind. MOSTLY TRUE: the expansion continues through 2018 and wages accelerate, but only modestly (for example by a few tenths of a point). MIXED: the expansion continues through 2018 but wage growth shows no real acceleration from 2016. MOSTLY FALSE: the expansion lasts well into 2017 or 2018 but a recession starts before the end of 2018. FALSE: a recession starts in 2016 or early 2017, so there was no extended recovery.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Employment Cost Index News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 31 January 2019

   “Wages and salaries increased 3.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2018 and increased 2.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2017.”

2. E2 Employment Cost Index - December 2016 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 31 January 2017

   “Wages and salaries increased 2.3 percent for the current 12-month period, and increased 2.1 percent for the 12-month period”

3. E3 Employment growth accelerates in 2018, extending a lengthy expansion U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Monthly Labor Review) · 14 May 2019

   “Since May 2014, the recovery point of the most recent recession, nonfarm payroll employment has expanded for 56 consecutive months, adding over 11.7 million jobs.”

4. E4 Employment growth accelerates in 2018, extending a lengthy expansion U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Monthly Labor Review) · 14 May 2019

   “Average hourly earnings, however, advanced by $0.89, to $27.53, for all employees on total private payrolls, a gain of 3.3 percent.”

E2 is the BLS Employment Cost Index release for December 2016. It gives wage and salary growth of 2.3% for the 12 months then ending. E1 shows ECI wage growth reached 3.1% for the 12 months to December 2018. That is a clear rise to about 3% or more, as part (b) requires. E3, a BLS review titled "Employment growth accelerates in 2018, extending a lengthy expansion", reports 56 straight months of payroll job growth from May 2014 onward. That supports the expansion continuing through 2018 with no recession. E4 adds that average hourly earnings grew 3.3% in that review.