Grantham's guess was that within a year or two of mid-2023 there would be time for a fairly traditional bubble losing air, a fairly traditional recession, a fairly traditional decline in profit margins and some grief in the stock markets.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
The horizon is about two years from 5 July 2023, so up to about July 2025. The claim has four parts, and each is tested in the US: (1) a bubble deflating, meaning the broad US equity market (S&P 500) falls materially from its valuation peak, with prices or valuations declining over a sustained period rather than briefly; (2) a recession, meaning an NBER-dated US recession, or failing that two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth as first reported or as revised, starting within the window; (3) a decline in profit margins, meaning a clear fall in aggregate US corporate profit margins (S&P 500 net margin or BEA corporate profits as a share of GDP/output) from their mid-2023 level; (4) some grief in the stock markets, meaning a notable fall in the S&P 500 within the window, such as a drawdown of at least 10%. True: all four happened within the window. Mostly true: the recession plus at least two other parts happened, with one part only weakly present. Mixed: about half the parts held. Mostly false: at most one part held, or the parts only occurred after July 2025. False: none held, for example no recession, margins steady or rising, and stocks rising without a meaningful drawdown.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 S&P 500 Drawdown History: Every 10%+ Correction Since 1993 Shibui Finance · 22 October 2026
“Peaked on 19 February 2025, fell 19.0% in 48 days to a trough on 8 April 2025, and recovered by 27 June 2025 (80 days from trough).”
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E2 FactSet Earnings Insight FactSet Research Systems Inc. · 25 July 2025
“The blended net profit margin for the S&P 500 for Q2 2025 is 12.3%, which is below the previous quarter’s net profit margin (12.7%), but above the year-ago net profit margin (12.2%) and above the 5-year average (11.8%).”
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E3 FactSet Earnings Insight FactSet Research Systems Inc. · 14 November 2025
“The blended net profit margin for the S&P 500 for Q3 2025 is 13.1%, which is above the previous quarter’s net profit margin of 12.8%, above the year-ago net profit margin of 12.5% and above the 5-year average of 12.1%.”
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E4 Gross Domestic Product U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · 25 September 2025
“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.”
Reasoning
E1 shows a 19.0% S&P 500 drawdown in early 2025 that recovered by June 2025. However, E2 and E3 give no mid-2023 margin baseline, and E4 covers only Q2 2025 GDP. So the evidence cannot establish whether a recession or a fall in margins occurred within the window.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Grantham's guess was that within a year or two of mid-2023 there would be time for a fairly traditional bubble losing air, a fairly traditional recession, a fairly traditional decline in profit margins and some grief in the stock markets.” (said 5 July 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_8bc608f69497, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8bc608f69497
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
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Mixed
“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
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Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
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Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.