GMO forecasts seven-year real returns below 1.25% a year for bonds other than emerging.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judged at the seven-year horizon, about October 2016, using realized annualized real (inflation-adjusted, US CPI) total returns from October 2009 to October 2016 for the non-emerging bond classes GMO forecast (for example US government/aggregate bonds, international developed bonds, inflation-linked bonds and cash, as GMO's own forecast table defines them). True: all such classes delivered annualized real returns below 1.25%. Mostly true: all but one minor class did so, or a class exceeded 1.25% by no more than about 0.25 point. Mixed: roughly half of the classes were below 1.25%. Mostly false: most major classes exceeded 1.25% real, with only one or two below. False: all or nearly all major non-emerging bond classes exceeded 1.25% real annualized.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Quarterly Letter GMO (Jeremy Grantham), reproduced on Scribd · October 2009 Own record
“Lehman Aggregate 8 2.8 4.4 6”
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E2 Agenda Item 4a: Director's Report, November 30, 2016 State Investment Council Meeting New Jersey Division of Investment · 30 November 2016
“Barclays US Tips(0.40)0.56 6.84 5.89 2.08 1.47 4.46”
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E3 [PDF] GMO Quarterly Letter - Fuller Treacy Money GMO (3Q 2016 Quarterly Letter, hosted by Fuller Treacy Money) · 30 September 2016 Own record
“Our standard assumptions for long-term asset class returns are that equities should deliver 5.5-6% above inflation in the long run, bonds 2.5-3% above inflation, and cash 1-1.5% above inflation.”
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E4 Stock Market Predictions Are Worthless Greenspring Advisors · 19 January 2026
“As we approach the end of his 7-year forecast from June 30, 2008, I thought it would be helpful to evaluate his predictions”
Reasoning
The resolution requires realized annualized real returns from October 2009 to October 2016 for each non-emerging bond class GMO forecast. E2 is an unlabelled table row from GMO's own letter, and E4 is an unlabelled row of Barclays TIPS figures with no column headings stating the periods or whether the returns are nominal or real. E5 gives GMO's general long-run assumptions, and E6 discusses a different forecast window. None of these establishes the realized real returns by class for the required period, so the claim cannot be resolved.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “GMO forecasts seven-year real returns below 1.25% a year for bonds other than emerging.” (said October 2009). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_82acc76d5a3b, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_82acc76d5a3b
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
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Mixed
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A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
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Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
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Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.