Three factors are moving in favor of US profit margins in 2017, including oil and resource prices, which appear to have bottomed out and seem likely to compare favorably, and a likely moderate cut in corporate tax rates.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The claim names three factors that would move in favour of US profit margins during 2017. Each factor counts if it happened in 2017: (1) oil and resource prices recovered, with the 2017 average above 2016; (2) a corporate tax cut was enacted in 2017 (enactment counts even if it took effect in 2018); (3) federal deregulatory actions were actually taken in 2017. The claim does not say margins themselves would rise, and that is not tested. True: all three happened. Mostly true: two clearly happened and the third happened partly (for example, a tax cut passed by Congress but not signed into law in 2017). Mixed: two happened and the third clearly did not. Mostly false: only one happened. False: none did.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (2)
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E1 Crude oil prices increased in 2017, and Brent-WTI spread widened - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) · 3 January 2018
“Crude oil prices ended 2017 at $60/barrel (b), the highest end-of-year price since 2013. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices averaged $51/b in 2017, up $7/b from the 2016 average, and ended the year $6/b higher than at the end of 2016.”
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E2 SIGNED INTO LAW: First Overhaul of Nation’s Tax Code in 31 Years - Ways and Means House Ways and Means Committee · 22 December 2017
“House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX), lead author of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, today released the following statement after President Donald Trump signed this historic legislation into law:”
Reasoning
E1 (EIA) shows the 2017 average WTI price was $51/b, up $7/b from 2016, so factor 1 happened. E2 records that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was signed into law on 2017-12-22, which bears on factor 2, though the quoted text does not state that the act cut the corporate tax rate. No evidence covers federal deregulatory actions in 2017. The verdict turns on that factor (true, mostly true or mixed), so the claim cannot be resolved.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Three factors are moving in favor of US profit margins in 2017, including oil and resource prices, which appear to have bottomed out and seem likely to compare favorably, and a likely moderate cut in corporate tax rates.” (said 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_76cdb7fdfe8a, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_76cdb7fdfe8a
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.