If bad China and better weather outcomes strike together, it will produce a second once-in-a-lifetime commodity event in three years.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
The conditional has no horizon, and 'once-in-a-lifetime' is vague.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “If bad China and better weather outcomes strike together, it will produce a second once-in-a-lifetime commodity event in three years.” (said April 2011). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_7603a59615b8, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7603a59615b8
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.