Grantham said it was likely (3 to 1) that the S&P 500 would reach its trendline value (about 3200) and spend at least some time below it in 2023 or 2024.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The claim is that the S&P 500 would reach its trendline, which Grantham put at about 3200 (or GMO's stated trendline value if it was specified differently), and spend at least some time below it during 2023 or 2024. True: the S&P 500 closed below about 3200 on at least one trading day between 1 January 2023 and 31 December 2024. Mostly true: it fell below 3200 only intraday, or closed within about 1% above 3200 in a way that reasonably counts as reaching the trend. Mostly false: the index's lowest close in the period was within about 3% above 3200 (around 3200–3300), so it approached but did not reach or go below the trend. False: the lowest close in 2023–2024 was more than about 3% above 3200.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Annual Market Review 2024 | Stone Oak Wealth Stone Oak Wealth Management · 13 January 2025
“Each of the benchmark indexes listed here closed 2024 much higher compared to 2023, with the NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the Dow each hitting record highs.”
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E2 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
“#2023-01-05|3808.10”
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E3 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
“#2024-01-04|4688.68”
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E4 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
“#2024-03-19|5178.51”
Reasoning
The FRED rows give single-day S&P 500 closes: 3808.10 on 5 Jan 2023 (E3), 4688.68 on 4 Jan 2024 (E4) and 5178.51 on 19 Mar 2024 (E5). E1 reports that the index ended 2024 much higher than 2023 and hit record highs. None of these sources gives the lowest close for 2023–2024, or says the index stayed above about 3200 for the whole period. The criteria depend on that lowest close, so the evidence does not settle the claim.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Grantham said it was likely (3 to 1) that the S&P 500 would reach its trendline value (about 3200) and spend at least some time below it in 2023 or 2024.” (said January 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_6a34d4922dee, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6a34d4922dee
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
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Mixed
“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
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Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
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Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.