Grantham said his personal view was that a major China stumble in the next three years or so was maybe only a one in three chance, but was still the most likely important unpleasant surprise of the fundamental economic variety.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judged at the end of 2012. A 'major China stumble' means a hard landing or crisis, such as annual real GDP growth falling below about 5%, a banking or financial crisis, or a sharp contraction widely described as a hard landing. Because Grantham put the chance at only about one in three, the forecast leaned against the event. True: no major China stumble occurred between October 2009 and the end of 2012. Mixed: a major stumble did occur (an outcome he rated as a minority but flagged as the most likely important unpleasant surprise). Mostly false: no major stumble occurred, but a different unpleasant economic surprise clearly dominated and contemporaneous assessments show a China stumble was never a leading risk. False: this verdict is not used for the probability component alone; reserve it for evidence that Grantham did not make this assessment.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 How to interpret China's current slowdown - KPMG KPMG · September 2012
“Growth for the first half of 2012 averaged 7.8 percent, which is the lowest growth rate in many years. A few days after the official data was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its estimate of China's GDP growth for 2012, from 8.2 percent to 8.0 percent, warning that a hard landing in the medium term is a possibility.”
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E2 How to interpret China's current slowdown - KPMG KPMG · September 2012
“The immediate answer is that the prospect for a hard landing (or economic collapse) is slim.”
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E3 China's Economy: Slower Growth, But Structural Reforms Progressing Carnegie Endowment for International Peace · 17 May 2012
“As China attempts to rebalance its economic model, it has avoided a hard landing and continues to move in the right direction on key structural reforms.”
Reasoning
KPMG (E1) reported China's first-half 2012 growth at 7.8 percent, described as the lowest in many years, which implies higher growth earlier in the window and nothing near the roughly 5% hard-landing threshold. KPMG judged the prospect of a hard landing slim (E2), and Carnegie (E3) said in May 2012 that China had avoided a hard landing. This points to no major China stumble during the forecast window, as the forecast leaned. The verdict stops short of fully true because the evidence does not cover the final months of 2012.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Grantham said his personal view was that a major China stumble in the next three years or so was maybe only a one in three chance, but was still the most likely important unpleasant surprise of the fundamental economic variety.” (said October 2009). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_6407436a81db, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6407436a81db
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Resolved false
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Resolved true
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.