In October 2009, Grantham wrote that it still seemed a safe bet that seven lean years lay ahead.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judged at the end of 2016, treating 'seven lean years' as roughly 2010-2016 being a period of below-normal economic growth in the US and developed world (relative to their pre-2008 long-run trend, about 3% a year real GDP growth for the US). True: average annual real GDP growth over 2010-2016 in the US and the developed economies broadly was clearly below the pre-2008 long-run trend, with most individual years below trend. Mostly true: the period was lean overall but one or two years or one major economy was near or above trend. Mixed: roughly half the years, or half the major developed economies, were lean. Mostly false: only a short part of the period (a few years) was below trend. False: growth over 2010-2016 was at or above the pre-2008 long-run trend.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Real Gross Domestic Product FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
“2016: 1.8 | Percent Change from Preceding Period, Not Seasonally Adjusted | Annual”
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E2 Trésor-Economics No. 169 (April 2016), "Potential growth in the United States: is the weakness here to stay?" Direction générale du Trésor (French Treasury) · April 2016
“Most organisations estimate U.S. potential growth at 1.5-2.0% in 2016, down from a pre-crisis average of 2.5%.”
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E3 Trésor-Economics No. 169 (April 2016), "Potential growth in the United States: is the weakness here to stay?" Direction générale du Trésor (French Treasury) · April 2016
“In the United States, the financial crisis accelerated the decline in potential growth by about 0.7 points compared with 2003-2007.”
Reasoning
E2 gives US real GDP growth of 1.8% for 2016, below the roughly 3% pre-2008 trend, but that is only one of the seven years in the 2010-2016 window. E3 and E4 report that US potential growth estimates fell to 1.5-2.0% in 2016, down from a pre-crisis average of about 2.5%, but potential growth is not the realised growth the criteria require. No evidence covers average realised growth over 2010-2016 or the other developed economies, so the criteria cannot be applied.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “In October 2009, Grantham wrote that it still seemed a safe bet that seven lean years lay ahead.” (said October 2009). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_5b202c2ccd20, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5b202c2ccd20
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
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Mixed
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Mostly false
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Mostly true
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.