ClaimsJeremy Grantham

“buying them now will give a much less disappointing return than would have been the case then.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO viewpoint author January 2023 After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder! (GMO)

Prediction Economics and markets

Stocks bought in January 2023 will give a much less disappointing return than they would have a year earlier.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge at a seven-year horizon, GMO's standard forecast period, ending January 2030. Compare the annualized total return of US stocks (S&P 500, with MSCI ACWI as a check) bought at end-January 2023 with stocks bought at end-January 2022, both measured to end-January 2030. True: the 2023 purchase's annualized return is at least 2 percentage points higher. Mostly true: it is 1 to 2 points higher. Mostly false: it is higher by less than 1 point. False: it is equal or lower. The claim does not require either return to be disappointing in absolute terms, and that is not tested.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (5)

  1. E1 S&P 500 (DISCONTINUED) (Monthly, I:SP50J00J) - United States - Historical Data & Trends YCharts (data source cited on page: Standard and Poor's) · 5 February 2026

    “January 31, 2023 | 4076.60”

  2. E2 S&P 500 (DISCONTINUED) (Monthly, I:SP50J00J) - United States - Historical Data & Trends YCharts (data source cited on page: Standard and Poor's) · 5 February 2026

    “January 31, 2022 | 4515.55”

  3. E3 S&P 500 (DISCONTINUED) (Monthly, I:SP50J00J) - United States - Historical Data & Trends YCharts (data source cited on page: Standard and Poor's) · 5 February 2026

    “January 31, 2026 | 6939.03”

  4. E4 TALKING POINTS First Trust Advisors L.P. · 7 February 2023

    “The S&P 500 Index posted a total return of -8.23% over the trailing 12-month period ended 1/31/23.”

  5. E5 TALKING POINTS First Trust Advisors L.P. · 7 February 2023

    “The S&P 500 Index (“index”) closed January 2023 at 4,076.60, 15.01% below its all-time closing high”

Reasoning

The criteria compare annualized total returns to end-January 2030, but the latest data point in the evidence is the S&P 500 level at January 31, 2026 (E3). E1, E2 and E5 give the starting levels: 4076.60 at end-January 2023 and 4515.55 at end-January 2022. E4 gives a total return of -8.23% for the 12 months to January 2023. Because the 2023 purchase is held for 7 years and the 2022 purchase for 8 years, the gap in annualized returns depends on where the index ends in 2030. That level is not in the evidence. Depending on it, the gap could fall in the true, mostly true or mostly false band, so the claim cannot be resolved.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Stocks bought in January 2023 will give a much less disappointing return than they would have a year earlier.” (said January 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_5950757f3948, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5950757f3948

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Jeremy Grantham, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham

  1. Resolved false Prediction January 2023
    “we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”

    The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.

  2. Mixed Prediction January 2023
    “near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”

    A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.

  3. Mostly false Prediction January 2023
    “after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”

    The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January.

  4. Mostly true Prediction January 2023
    “may help to support the market for a few more months.”

    The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 31 August 2022
    “Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”

    Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.