The Presidential Cycle, subsiding inflation, labor market strength and China's reopening may cause a pause or delay in the bear market.

This hedged prediction says the presidential cycle (pre-election year 2023), easing inflation, a strong labour market and China's reopening may cause a pause or delay in the US equity bear market. Judge it over calendar 2023. TRUE: US stocks (S&P 500) made no new bear-market low below the October 2022 low during 2023 and rose or held over the year, and the named conditions broadly occurred (inflation fell, the labour market stayed strong, China reopened). MOSTLY TRUE: the pause happened, but one of the named factors did not materialise as described. MIXED: the market paused for only part of 2023 and then resumed falling, or the pause happened while most named factors did not occur. MOSTLY FALSE: only a brief rally occurred before the market fell to new lows in 2023. FALSE: the market declined steadily through 2023 to new bear-market lows, with no meaningful pause.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Consumer Price Index News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 11 January 2024

   “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.4 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 306.746 (1982-84=100).”

2. E2 Ten Charts That Explain the U.S. Economy in 2023 | CEA | The White House Council of Economic Advisers, The White House · 19 December 2023

   “After peaking in summer 2022, inflation has been on a downward trend for a year and a half thanks to a retreat of food, energy, and goods inflation.”

3. E3 Payrolls Continued to Grow in December The Conference Board · 5 January 2024

   “Moreover, hiring in the second half of 2023 was far less robust than in the first half.”

4. E4 The Impact of China’s Reopening | MSCI MSCI · 23 January 2023

   “China reopened its borders and eliminated COVID-19 quarantine requirements on Jan. 8, which appears to be the end of its three-year-long, "zero-COVID" policy.”

5. E5 Consumer Price Index News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 12 January 2024

   “Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.”

6. E6 CPI 2023: CPI-U Annual Average 304.702, Monthly Values & Inflation Rate | cpichart.com cpichart.com

   “The 12-month inflation rate ranged from +3.0% in June to +6.4% in January.”

7. E7 CPI 2023: CPI-U Annual Average 304.702, Monthly Values & Inflation Rate | cpichart.com cpichart.com

   “From December 2022 to December 2023, prices rose 3.4%.”

The evidence supports some of the named conditions, but no evidence item covers the Presidential Cycle or US stock market performance in 2023. Inflation eased during 2023 (E2, E6), and CPI-U rose 3.4% from December 2022 to December 2023 (E1, E7). China reopened in January 2023 (E4). Payroll growth continued, though it slowed in the second half of the year (E3). However, no item shows how the S&P 500 performed in 2023, or whether it made a new low below the October 2022 low, and that is the core of the resolution criteria. Without market evidence, the claim cannot be judged.