If wages rise and oil rebounds toward $100 a barrel by 2020, inflation could tick up, which has historically tended to lower P/Es.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
This is a strongly hedged conditional prediction for the period to end-2020. First test the condition: did U.S. wages rise noticeably and did oil rebound toward $100 a barrel (Brent or WTI daily closes reaching roughly $85 or more) by 2020? If the condition did not occur, the prediction was not tested and should be treated as unresolvable rather than true or false. If the condition occurred: True: U.S. inflation (CPI) then rose noticeably and the S&P 500 P/E (trailing or Shiller CAPE) fell afterwards within the period. Mostly true: both happened but the P/E decline was small or brief. Mixed: inflation rose but P/Es did not fall, or P/Es fell without any inflation uptick. Mostly false: inflation barely moved and P/Es were flat. False: inflation did not rise and P/Es rose.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (2)
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E1 Table Data - Global price of Brent Crude Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from International Monetary Fund
“| 2020-01-01 | 63.89869565217391 | | 2020-02-01 | 55.69100000000000 | | 2020-03-01 | 33.94727272727273 | | 2020-04-01 | 26.84863636363636 | | 2020-05-01 | 32.42238095238095 | | 2020-06-01 | 40.86045454545455 | | 2020-07-01 | 43.29565217391304 | | 2020-08-01 | 45.08142857142857 | | 2020-09-01 | 41.92681818181818 | | 2020-10-01 | 41.60681818181818 | | 2020-11-01 | 44.05000000000000 |”
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E2 WTI Crude Oil Price History by Year — Average & Range worldoilmonitor.com · 28 October 2026
“| Year | Low | High | Average | High-to-low range, % of average | |---|---|---|---|---| | 2020 | -37.63 | 63.27 | 39.34 | 256% |”
Reasoning
The criteria make this prediction conditional: oil has to rebound to roughly $85 or more, and wages have to rise, before the inflation and P/E outcome can be tested. Of the monthly Brent averages for January to November 2020 shown in E1, the highest was about $64 in January; February was about $56, and from March to November they ranged from about $27 to $45 (E1). WTI's 2020 high was $63.27 (E4). Neither evidence item covers 2016–2019, and none covers wages, CPI or S&P 500 P/Es. So the evidence does not show the condition being met, and the prediction cannot be scored as true or false.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “If wages rise and oil rebounds toward $100 a barrel by 2020, inflation could tick up, which has historically tended to lower P/Es.” (said 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_51452499ddfd, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_51452499ddfd
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Resolved false
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.