Grantham proposed that discount rates returning two-thirds of the way to the old normal was more probable than either returning all the way or staying indefinitely at current levels, although he said both were possible.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
It is a comparative probability judgement with no horizon and no defined 'old normal'.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Grantham proposed that discount rates returning two-thirds of the way to the old normal was more probable than either returning all the way or staying indefinitely at current levels, although he said both were possible.” (said 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_49f95879c4a2, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_49f95879c4a2
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
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Mixed
“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
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Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
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Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.