ClaimsJeremy Grantham

“It’s likely to be a bumpy ride.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO letter author April 2007 The First Truly Global Bubble (It's Everywhere, In Everything) (GMO)

Prediction Economics and markets

Markets are likely to be in for a bumpy ride after April 2007.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The claim gives no date, so judge it over the following roughly 20 months (through end-2008). True: major equity markets had marked volatility and turbulence after April 2007, for example a peak-to-trough decline of 10% or more in the S&P 500 or global equities, or VIX readings well above its 2006–early-2007 levels. Mostly true: there was noticeable turbulence, but it was modest or short-lived (corrections of about 5–10%). Mostly false: markets were mostly calm, with only minor wobbles. False: markets rose smoothly with low volatility throughout the period.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Overview: credit retrenchment triggers liquidity squeeze Bank for International Settlements (BIS Quarterly Review, September 2007) · September 2007

    “steadily in July and August, reaching an intraday peak of 37.5% on 16 August”
  2. E2 Box A: Volatility in Global Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia (Statement on Monetary Policy, February 2009) · February 2009

    “However, volatility increased sharply to historically high levels following”
  3. E3 [PDF] VI. Financial markets - BIS 78th Annual Report - June 2008 Bank for International Settlements (78th Annual Report) · June 2008

    “with the broad MSCI emerging market index down 18% by 17 August, compared to a 10% decline in the global index over the same period.”
  4. E4 S&P 500 Historical Prices by Month multpl.com (citing Standard & Poor's and Robert Shiller)

    “| Oct 1, 2007 | 1,539.66 |”

Reasoning

The BIS 78th Annual Report (E3) says the global equity index fell 10% and the MSCI emerging market index fell 18% by 17 August, which falls within the window after April 2007. That meets the criteria's threshold of a 10% or larger peak-to-trough drop in global equities. The RBA's February 2009 box on global market volatility (E2) adds that volatility rose sharply to historically high levels. The figure in E1 and the single S&P 500 row in E4 don't say enough on their own about what they measure, so they are only background.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Markets are likely to be in for a bumpy ride after April 2007.” (said April 2007). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_45197f620f19, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_45197f620f19

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Jeremy Grantham, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham

  1. Resolved false Prediction January 2023
    “we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”

    The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.

  2. Mixed Prediction January 2023
    “near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”

    A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.

  3. Mostly false Prediction January 2023
    “after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”

    The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January.

  4. Mostly true Prediction January 2023
    “may help to support the market for a few more months.”

    The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 31 August 2022
    “Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”

    Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.