ClaimsJeremy Grantham

“several of my smart colleagues agree with Jim Chanos that China’s structural imbalances will cause at least one wheel to come off of their economy within the next 12 months.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder, letter author April 2011 GMO Quarterly Letter April 2011: Time to Wake Up (GMO) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Several GMO colleagues agree with Jim Chanos that China's structural imbalances will cause at least one wheel to come off its economy within the next 12 months.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

What GMO colleagues privately agree with is internal, though China's economy over the next 12 months is observable.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Several GMO colleagues agree with Jim Chanos that China's structural imbalances will cause at least one wheel to come off its economy within the next 12 months.” (said April 2011). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_39c3e2b4b83e, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_39c3e2b4b83e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Jeremy Grantham, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham

  1. Resolved false Prediction January 2023
    “we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”

    The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.

  2. Mixed Prediction January 2023
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    A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.

  3. Mostly false Prediction January 2023
    “after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”

    The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January.

  4. Mostly true Prediction January 2023
    “may help to support the market for a few more months.”

    The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 31 August 2022
    “Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”

    Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.