In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
This hedged prediction says that 12 to 24 months after January 2016, i.e. by January 2018, US house prices might beat the US stock market in causing the next financial crisis. TRUE: a financial crisis began between about January 2017 and January 2018, driven mainly by US house prices or housing credit. MOSTLY FALSE: house prices became notably overvalued or fell in the window but no financial crisis followed, or a housing-driven crisis began after January 2018. FALSE: no financial crisis occurred in the window, or a crisis occurred that was caused by something other than US housing.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Financial Stability Assessment (OFR 2017 Financial Stability Report, Chapter 2) Office of Financial Research, U.S. Department of the Treasury · 2017
“U.S. house prices are elevated relative to median household incomes and estimated national rents, although these ratios are well below the levels observed just before the financial”
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E2 Financial Stability Assessment (OFR 2017 Financial Stability Report, Chapter 2) Office of Financial Research, U.S. Department of the Treasury · 2017
“The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is at its 97th percentile relative to the last 130 years.”
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E3 Assessing Global Financial Stability International Monetary Fund (IMF News, by Tobias Adrian) · 27 October 2017
“Near-term financial stability risks are lower, driven by a decline in macroeconomic and emerging market risks.”
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E4 6th Straight Record High For Home Prices -Case-Shiller Mortgage News Daily · 25 July 2017
“The National Index is now 3.2 percent higher than its previous peak in July 2006 and has risen by 42.2 percent since hitting bottom in February 2012.”
Reasoning
US house prices were elevated in 2017. The OFR described them as high relative to incomes and rents but well below pre-crisis levels (E1), and Case-Shiller showed record highs by mid-2017 (E4). Equity valuations were also stretched (E2). In October 2017 the IMF reported that near-term financial stability risks were lower (E3), which indicates no financial crisis was under way. That fits the criteria's mostly-false outcome: house prices notably elevated, but no housing-driven crisis followed within the window.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis.” (said January 2016). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_317fa5ed148d, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_317fa5ed148d
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Resolved false
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Mostly false
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Resolved true
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.