ClaimsJeremy Grantham

“Should both the sun shine and the rain rain at the right time and place, then we will have an absolutely record crop.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder, letter author April 2011 GMO Quarterly Letter April 2011: Time to Wake Up (GMO) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

If sun and rain come at the right time and place, there will be an absolute record crop.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Conditional prediction about the crop discussed in the April 2011 letter (the 2011 harvest, global grain or the U.S. crop the letter names). First test the condition: was growing-season weather broadly favourable (sun and rain at the right time and place) in the main producing regions? If weather was clearly unfavourable and no record was set, the prediction was not tested and should be treated as unresolvable. True: the 2011 crop was an all-time record by volume (USDA/FAO), whether or not weather was ideal. Mostly true: a record was set on a closely related measure (e.g. world grain total but not the specific crop named, or vice versa) with favourable weather. Mixed: weather was mixed, and output was near but not at a record. Mostly false: weather was broadly favourable, but output was clearly below the record. False: weather was favourable and output was well below the previous record.

Set before the research began.

Reasoning

No evidence with a verified quote was found apart from the claim's own source, so the claim was not judged.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “If sun and rain come at the right time and place, there will be an absolute record crop.” (said April 2011). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_3051efd4b52c, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3051efd4b52c

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Jeremy Grantham, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham

  1. Resolved false Prediction January 2023
    “we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”

    The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.

  2. Mixed Prediction January 2023
    “near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”

    A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.

  3. Mostly false Prediction January 2023
    “after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”

    The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January.

  4. Mostly true Prediction January 2023
    “may help to support the market for a few more months.”

    The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 31 August 2022
    “Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”

    Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.