A 60% stock/40% bond portfolio would be lucky to deliver 3% a year even if current high P/Es and above-normal margins were locked in.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
The hypothetical lacks a horizon and rests on a counterfactual about locked-in valuations.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “A 60% stock/40% bond portfolio would be lucky to deliver 3% a year even if current high P/Es and above-normal margins were locked in.” (said January 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_2ce7783f9b7b, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_2ce7783f9b7b
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
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Mixed
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.