Prediction Economics and markets

Grantham guessed that the price of oil would be as high as $100 a barrel again within five years.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Test: did a major crude oil benchmark (Brent or WTI front-month/spot) reach $100 a barrel or more within five years of January 2016, i.e. on or before 31 January 2021? True: a daily settlement/closing price at or above $100 on Brent or WTI in that window. Mostly true: $100 was reached only intraday, not on a daily close, in that window. Mostly false: the highest daily close in the window was just under $100 (from $98 up to $99.99), or $100 was first reached only after 31 January 2021. False: the highest daily close of both benchmarks in the window was below $98.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

E1 Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) · 28 October 2026

“| 2017 Feb-20 to Feb-24 | 55.25 | 56.34 | 54.90 | 55.82 | 54.69 |”
E2 Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) · 28 October 2026

“| 2016 Jan- 4 to Jan- 8 | 36.28 | 35.56 | 33.89 | 33.57 | 31.67 |”
E3 Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) · 28 October 2026

“| 2021 Jan-25 to Jan-29 | 55.44 | 55.26 | 55.07 | 54.87 | 55.25 |”
E4 Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) · 28 October 2026

“| 2022 Feb-14 to Feb-18 | 101.66 | 98.43 | 97.44 | 95.28 | 96.18 |”

Reasoning

The EIA Brent spot series gives only three sample weeks from inside the window. Brent was about $31–36 in early January 2016 (E2), about $55–56 in February 2017 (E1) and about $55 in late January 2021 (E3). E4 shows Brent at $101.66 in February 2022, which is after the 31 January 2021 deadline. None of the excerpts gives the highest daily close for Brent or WTI over the whole period from January 2016 to January 2021, so they cannot show whether $100 (or $98) was reached in that window.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Grantham guessed that the price of oil would be as high as $100 a barrel again within five years.” (said January 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_20bf54c5e503, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_20bf54c5e503

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham

Resolved false Prediction January 2023

“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”

The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
Mixed Prediction January 2023

“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”

A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
Mostly false Prediction January 2023

“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”

The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January.
Mostly true Prediction January 2023

“may help to support the market for a few more months.”

The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
Resolved true Prediction 31 August 2022

“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”

Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.