If weather is friendly in the next year, grain will be in glut because farmers are planting every tillable acre.

Conditional prediction made in April 2011: if growing weather over the next year (roughly the 2011-12 crop seasons) was favourable, there would be a grain glut ('drown in grain') because farmers were planting every tillable acre. First decide whether the condition held, meaning whether weather in the major grain-producing regions (US, South America, Black Sea, etc.) was broadly favourable. If it held: True = a glut, meaning large harvests, rising stocks and sharp falls in grain prices by 2012. Mostly true = big harvests and clearly falling prices, but short of a glut. Mixed = harvests up in some grains only. Mostly false = only slight easing. False = no glut, and prices stayed high or rose despite good weather. If the evidence shows that weather was clearly not favourable in major producing regions (for example a major drought), the condition failed and the prediction was not tested. In that case the claim should be treated as unresolvable rather than true or false.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 GMO's Jeremy Grantham warns about impending food crisis Top1000funds.com · 3 October 2012

   “Recent US drought-driven spikes in grain prices Grantham predicts are just a foretaste of things to come and particularly concerning, given the widespread plantings undertaken after 2008 shortages led to food-price riots in some developing countries.”

2. E2 GMO's Jeremy Grantham warns about impending food crisis Top1000funds.com · 3 October 2012

   “The droughts afflicting farmers in the US and the subsequent spike in food commodity prices are just forerunners to the climate-change fallout that will see many food-importing developing countries struggle to feed their populations, according to Grantham.”

This was a conditional prediction: a grain glut would follow only if growing weather was favourable. An independent report from 2012 describes droughts hitting US farmers and the spikes in grain and food commodity prices that followed [E1][E2]. That means growing weather was clearly not favourable in a major producing region. The resolution criteria say the prediction was then not tested, so the claim is treated as unresolvable rather than true or false.