ClaimsJeremy Grantham

“In our seven-year forecast the quality segment has a full seven-percentage-point lead over the whole S&P 500, or 9% over the balance ex-quality.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO letter author October 2009 Jeremy Grantham GMO letter 3Q 2009: Just Desserts and Markets Being Silly Again (Scribd)

This quote could not be matched word for word to the source page.

Prediction Economics and markets

GMO's seven-year forecast has quality stocks returning 7 percentage points more than the S&P 500, or 9 points more than the non-quality remainder.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judged at about October 2016, using realized annualized total returns from October 2009 to October 2016 for US quality stocks (GMO's quality definition or a comparable high-quality index) against the S&P 500 and the non-quality remainder. True: quality outperformed the S&P 500 by at least about 6.5 percentage points a year (and the remainder by roughly 8.5 points or more). Mostly true: the lead over the S&P 500 was 5 to 6.5 points a year. Mostly false: quality outperformed by more than 0 but less than 5 points a year. False: quality matched or underperformed the S&P 500.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 SPHQ Returns by Year: Annual Total Return Table | ChartRow ChartRow

    “| 2016 | $23.13 | $25.99 | | 1.9% | +14.3% |”

  2. E2 SPHQ Returns by Year: Annual Total Return Table | ChartRow ChartRow

    “| 2010 | $11.22 | $13.44 | | 0.7% | +20.5% |”

  3. E3 S&P 500 Quality (SPHQ) — Quality Factor Explained | Originave Originave

    “| 2015 | +1.64% |”

Reasoning

The evidence consists of isolated, unlabelled annual table rows for the SPHQ quality ETF (E1, E2, E3). These rows do not clearly state what each figure measures. None of them gives an annualized October 2009 to October 2016 comparison against the S&P 500 or against the non-quality remainder. The criteria cannot be applied from these fragments.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “GMO's seven-year forecast has quality stocks returning 7 percentage points more than the S&P 500, or 9 points more than the non-quality remainder.” (said October 2009). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_14162ba3cdda, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_14162ba3cdda

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Jeremy Grantham, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham

  1. Resolved false Prediction January 2023
    “we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”

    The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.

  2. Mixed Prediction January 2023
    “near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”

    A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.

  3. Mostly false Prediction January 2023
    “after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”

    The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January.

  4. Mostly true Prediction January 2023
    “may help to support the market for a few more months.”

    The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 31 August 2022
    “Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”

    Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.