By the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Prediction that by the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies would occur, arriving on top of corporate debt that was already at a peak. Measure: business/corporate bankruptcy filings during 2020 (US, which is the claim's context), such as US Courts business filings or Epiq/ABI commercial Chapter 11 counts. True: thousands (at least 2,000) of corporate bankruptcy filings occurred in 2020, and corporate debt was at or near a record high. Mostly true: thousands of filings occurred, but corporate debt was not quite at its peak, or a similar minor detail was off. Mostly false: filings counted on the claim's terms numbered in the hundreds, not the thousands. False: corporate bankruptcies in 2020 were far below thousands, or the claim's premise of a debt peak was clearly wrong and filings fell short.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (2)
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E1 Commercial Chapter 11s Jump 29% in 2020, Flat in December ABL Advisor · 13 January 2021
“Commercial Chapter 11 filings increased 29 percent during calendar year 2020 as the total of 7,128 climbed past the 5,519 recorded during calendar year 2019, according to data provided by Epiq.”
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E2 Commercial Chapter 11s Jump 29% in 2020, Flat in December ABL Advisor · 13 January 2021
“The 32,506 business filings in calendar year 2020 represented a 17 percent drop from the 39,050 recorded in calendar year 2019.”
Reasoning
Citing Epiq data, E1 reports 7,128 commercial Chapter 11 filings in calendar 2020, up 29% from 2019. That clears the criteria's threshold of at least 2,000. E2 reports 32,506 business filings in total for 2020. That figure is also in the thousands, although it was 17% lower than in 2019. None of the evidence covers whether corporate debt was at or near a record high, so the debt-peak part of the claim cannot be confirmed. The core part, thousands of corporate bankruptcies, is supported.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “By the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt.” (said 2020). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_114e7557028d, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_114e7557028d
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.