If China stumbles and weather improves together, commodity markets will very probably break en masse.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
The conditional has no horizon, and 'very probably' is a vague probabilistic claim.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “If China stumbles and weather improves together, commodity markets will very probably break en masse.” (said April 2011). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_0c65036aff45, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0c65036aff45
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
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Mixed
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Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
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Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.