Grantham said that, unless there were substantial unexpected negatives, this did seem to make the odds of a major market decline in the near future quite low, adding "famous last words?".
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Treat a 'major decline' as a peak-to-trough fall of 20% or more in the S&P 500 (closing basis), and the 'near future' as the period from the statement in 2017 to 31 December 2017. True: no peak-to-trough decline of 10% or more in that period. Mostly true: a correction of 10% to just under 20%, but no 20% decline. False: an S&P 500 decline of 20% or more occurred in that period.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (8)
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E1 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); data source S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
“| 2017-08-07 | 2480.91 |”
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E2 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); data source S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
“| 2017-08-18 | 2425.55 |”
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E3 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); data source S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
“| 2017-12-18 | 2690.16 |”
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E4 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · 27 October 2026
“| Frequency | Daily, Close |”
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E5 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · 27 October 2026
“| 2017-04-13 | 2328.95 |”
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E6 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · 27 October 2026
“| 2017-08-07 | 2480.91 |”
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E7 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · 27 October 2026
“| 2017-08-18 | 2425.55 |”
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E8 S And P 500 2017 | StatMuse Money StatMuse Money · 24 November 2017
“| December 29 2017 | $2,689.15 | $2,692.12 | $2,673.61 | $2,673.61 | 2,447,760,000 | | December 28 2017 | $2,686.10 | $2,687.66 | $2,682.69 | $2,687.54 | 2,174,890,000 |”
Reasoning
The evidence gives only a few selected S&P 500 closes for 2017 [E1][E2][E3][E5][E8]. They show a pullback of about 2.2% in August and a higher close at year end. Because the full daily series is not in the material, the evidence cannot show that no peak-to-trough decline of 10% or more happened in the period, and the criteria need that to settle the claim.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Grantham said that, unless there were substantial unexpected negatives, this did seem to make the odds of a major market decline in the near future quite low, adding "famous last words?".” (said 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_03f257d3a531, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_03f257d3a531
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
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Mixed
“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
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Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
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Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
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Resolved true
“Each cycle is different and unique—but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.