Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
71 64 78 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 0 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 71 (likely 64 to 78, medium confidence), from 55 claims: 55 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Peter Thiel's claims
“The revelation may be slow (because it contains a message that humans do not wish to hear), but it is not reversible.”
Peter Thiel, essay author 2007 The Straussian Moment (gwern.net (PDF))
This quote could not be matched word for word to the source page.
In Girard's view, the Judeo-Western revelation may be slow because humans do not wish to hear its message, but it is not reversible.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Test against René Girard's own writings and interviews (e.g. Things Hidden Since the Foundation of the World, I See Satan Fall Like Lightning, Battling to the End). True: Girard holds that the Judeo-Christian revelation exposing the scapegoat mechanism spreads slowly or meets resistance because people resist its message, and that once given it cannot be undone or reversed. Mostly true: Girard clearly holds both ideas, though in slightly different terms (e.g. 'resistance' or 'misunderstanding' rather than 'not wishing to hear'). Mixed: only one of the two parts (slowness from resistance, irreversibility) is supported by Girard's texts. Mostly false: Girard's view on one part is significantly different (e.g. he treats the revelation's effects as reversible or likely to be lost), with only a loose link to the other. False: Girard's writings contradict both parts.
Evidence
- Girard, René - Comments on Christianity, Scapegoating & Sacrifice, (1997) 27 Religion 249 Scribd (excerpt of Religion journal, 1997, reprinting a 1996 James Williams interview with René Girard) · 1997 Own record
“I naively thought that everyone would agree with my theory immediately, because I saw it as so obvious and overpowering.”
- Girard, René - Comments on Christianity, Scapegoating & Sacrifice, (1997) 27 Religion 249 Scribd (excerpt of Religion journal, 1997, reprinting a 1996 James Williams interview with René Girard) · 1997 Own record
“They simply do not understand the enormous difference that the representation of scapegoating makes.”
- Girard, René - Comments on Christianity, Scapegoating & Sacrifice, (1997) 27 Religion 249 Scribd (excerpt of Religion journal, 1997, reprinting a 1996 James Williams interview with René Girard) · 1997 Own record
“In the Gospels we have the revelation of the mechanism that dominates culture unconsciously.”
- Transcript of Girard Lecture V | The Christian Revelation johnathanbi.com (lecture transcript) · 25 December 2022
“It is the pivot point where history gets taken out of a cyclical view and thrown into a linear trajectory.”
- Girard, René - Comments on Christianity, Scapegoating & Sacrifice, (1997) 27 Religion 249 Scribd (excerpts of a 1996 interview with René Girard, published in Religion, Academic Press, 1997) · 1997
“I naively thought that everyone would agree with my theory immediately, because I saw it as so obvious and overpowering.”
- Girard, René - Comments on Christianity, Scapegoating & Sacrifice, (1997) 27 Religion 249 Scribd (excerpts of a 1996 interview with René Girard, published in Religion, Academic Press, 1997) · 1997
“This is the mistake so many theologians and biblical scholars have made regarding the mimetic scapegoat theory. They simply do not understand the enormous difference that the representation of scapegoating makes.”
- Girard, René - Comments on Christianity, Scapegoating & Sacrifice, (1997) 27 Religion 249 Scribd (excerpts of a 1996 interview with René Girard, published in Religion, Academic Press, 1997) · 1997
“But as soon as he is immersed in a mob of scapegoaters, he surrenders to the mimetic pressure and joins them.”
- Girard, René - Comments on Christianity, Scapegoating & Sacrifice, (1997) 27 Religion 249 Scribd (excerpts of a 1996 interview with René Girard, published in Religion, Academic Press, 1997) · 1997
“In the Gospels we have the revelation of the mechanism that dominates culture unconsciously.”
- Violence and the Sacred at Fifty: Mimetic Desire, the Scapegoat Mechanism, and its Destructive Revelation Giornale di filosofia (Sapienza Università di Roma), by Sandor Goodhart · 2022
“The fact that the arbitrariness of the scapegoat process, and the innocence of the victim of the crimes with which he or she is charged, is suddenly available, is no guarantee that the sacrificial practices will end, or not quickly become neo-sacrificial, acting as if the revelation was never given at all.”
- Violence and the Sacred at Fifty: Mimetic Desire, the Scapegoat Mechanism, and its Destructive Revelation Giornale di filosofia (Sapienza Università di Roma), by Sandor Goodhart · 2022
“But the history of the understanding of that theory he notes is a slow one.”
- Scandals, Scapegoats, and the Cross: An Interview with René Girard Dialogue: A Journal of Mormon Thought (Dialogue Journal) · April 2009
“Or suddenly there occurs a regression. The twentieth century was a period of great regression because of Marxism and Nazism.”
- Scandals, Scapegoats, and the Cross: An Interview with René Girard Dialogue: A Journal of Mormon Thought (Dialogue Journal) · April 2009
“We are not Christian enough to be fully Christian, but we are Christian enough to be ashamed and therefore resort less efficiently to the mechanism.”
Reasoning
The evidence partly supports the first part of the claim: understanding of the revelation has been slow and has met misunderstanding [E10, E6]. Goodhart reports that Girard saw the history of understanding his theory as slow (E10). Girard says theologians "do not understand" what the Gospels reveal about scapegoating (E6) and describes people giving in to mimetic pressure (E7). The second part, that the revelation cannot be reversed, is not clearly supported. Girard speaks of a "great regression" in the twentieth century (E11), and Goodhart says societies can carry on "as if the revelation was never given" (E9). Girard's remark that we are "Christian enough to be ashamed" (E12) points to some lasting effect, but none of the quotes says outright that the revelation cannot be undone.
Cite this claim
Peter Thiel, “In Girard's view, the Judeo-Western revelation may be slow because humans do not wish to hear its message, but it is not reversible.” (said 2007). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_641c5b6c16ca, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_641c5b6c16ca
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Peter Thiel? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.