Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
-
Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
71 64 78 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 0 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 71 (likely 64 to 78, medium confidence), from 55 claims: 55 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Peter Thiel's claims
“We didn’t get that much terrorism, and we instead got the Patriot Act and incredible tracking of money flows, incredible monitoring of people.”
Peter Thiel, interviewee April 2024 Peter Thiel on Political Theology (Ep. 210) (Conversations with Tyler)
After 9/11 there was not much terrorism, and instead the US got the Patriot Act, extensive tracking of money flows and monitoring of people.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
There are two parts: (a) after 9/11 there was 'not much' terrorism, read as referring to the US and as meaning comparatively few terrorist attacks or deaths on US soil after 2001, relative to fears at the time and to 9/11 itself; and (b) the US enacted the Patriot Act and greatly expanded financial tracking and surveillance of people. True: terrorism databases (for example the Global Terrorism Database or New America data) show US terrorism deaths and attacks after 2001 were far lower than on 9/11, with no attack of comparable scale, and official records confirm the Patriot Act (2001) and the expansion of financial monitoring (for example under Patriot Act Title III and FinCEN) and of surveillance (for example the NSA programmes revealed in 2013). Mostly true: both parts hold but with a minor overstatement, for example several significant attacks did occur. Mixed: one part holds and the other does not, for example US terrorism after 2001 was substantial. Mostly false: the surveillance expansion was minor, or post-9/11 US terrorism was clearly substantial and the claim distorts it. False: the Patriot Act was not enacted, or there was no expansion of surveillance.
Evidence
- What Trump should do about terrorism (but probably won't) | Brookings Brookings Institution · 9 March 2022
“At home, only 94 Americans have died from jihadist attacks since 9/11—far fewer than experts (including myself) anticipated in the scary weeks after 9/11.”
- [PDF] Terrorism and Counterterrorism in the United States Since 9/11 - OSU John Mueller (Ohio State University / Cato Institute) and Mark G. Stewart (University of Newcastle), 'Dueling Delusions' working paper · 9 November 2011
“a level of terrorist activity 15 to 20 times that seen in the years since 9/11, even when foiled plots are counted as incidents.”
- The United States After 9/11: How Many Major Terrorist Attacks Have There Been In America Since 2001? International Business Times (IBTimes) · 9 September 2016
“Despite heightened security measures since the coordinated attacks by al-Qaeda on Sept. 11, 2001, there have been 37 terrorist acts on U.S. soil. While 14 of those terrorist acts did not have fatalities, there were 151 total deaths from 23 attacks”
- USA Patriot Act of 2001 U.S. Government Publishing Office (Public Law 107-56, 107th Congress) · 11 September 2001
“money laundering, and the defects in financial transparency on which money launderers rely, are critical to the financing of global terrorism and the provision of funds for terrorist attacks;”
Reasoning
On part (a), E1 reports that 94 Americans died in jihadist attacks in the US after 9/11, far fewer than experts had expected. E3 counts 37 terrorist acts on US soil since 2001, with 151 deaths in total. E2 likewise describes US terrorist activity after 9/11 as well below earlier levels. So no later attack came close to 9/11 in scale, although a number of deadly attacks did happen. On part (b), E4 is the text of the USA PATRIOT Act (Public Law 107-56), which confirms it was enacted and that it targeted money laundering and financial transparency; none of the evidence directly records the wider expansion of surveillance of people. Both parts mostly hold, but there were several significant attacks and the surveillance expansion is only partly shown, so the verdict is mostly true.
Cite this claim
Peter Thiel, “After 9/11 there was not much terrorism, and instead the US got the Patriot Act, extensive tracking of money flows and monitoring of people.” (said April 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_f2486d9afa25, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f2486d9afa25
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Peter Thiel? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.