ClaimsPeople

Peter Thiel

Peter Thiel is an entrepreneur and venture capitalist who co-founded PayPal and Palantir Technologies and founded Founders Fund.

673 claims collected, 107 researched, 55 resolved. Report of 30 October 2026, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    71 64 78

    Medium confidence, 55 factual claims resolved. From 11 documents, 2007 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 29 candidates found.

    Not scored: 24 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records.

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    Insufficient record: 0 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 23 unresolvable. 4 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

All types combined: 71 (likely 64 to 78, medium confidence), from 55 claims: 55 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Peter Thiel's claims

55 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Factual 30 Sep 2026 In Goethe's Faust, Faust makes a pact with the devil and, in Thiel's words, "sort of" gains knowledge by morally dubious means. Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Other
Mostly true Factual 30 Sep 2026 In Goethe's Faust, things work out more for the best and Faust is redeemed. Factual · 30 Sep 2026 Other
Mostly true Factual 25 Sep 2026 In Thiel's assessment, Europe is extremely far behind in AI, although he said the situation is still fluid. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 25 Sep 2026 Thiel's stagnation thesis held that technological progress has slowed since the 1970s. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 25 Sep 2026 Thiel's 2009 article did not argue that people would lose their votes or that democracy would disappear. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 25 Sep 2026 Thiel said he encouraged the person under discussion to write his book and supported him financially when he ran for the Senate in 2022. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 25 Sep 2026 Thiel said he sees much less urgency about AI among companies in Europe than in the US, and that in Europe the instinct is still to wait. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 25 Sep 2026 Thiel's 2009 article argued for depoliticization, a reduction in the intensity of politics. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 18 Nov 2024 A gunpowder revolution occurred in the 17th century and changed social and political structures. Factual · 18 Nov 2024 Technology
Mostly false Factual 18 Nov 2024 When people were writing about these things in the 18th and even 19th centuries, the idea was that the world was too big to be destroyed and that God would not do it. Factual · 18 Nov 2024 Other global risks
Resolved true Factual 18 Nov 2024 Thousands of nuclear weapons, not just dozens, were built in the 1960s and 1970s. Factual · 18 Nov 2024 Other global risks
Mostly true Factual 18 Nov 2024 If technology means producing more with less, there should be dramatic economic progress, but there has not been, and millennials are not dramatically better off than their boomer parents. Factual · 18 Nov 2024 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 18 Nov 2024 People in the 17th and 18th centuries were very optimistic about radical human life extension. Factual · 18 Nov 2024 Technology
Mostly false Factual 18 Nov 2024 Thiel said he thinks the classic definition of AI was passing the Turing test, fooling people into thinking it was human 'in some sense', and that ChatGPT passed it in late 2022 or early 2023. Factual · 18 Nov 2024 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 8 Oct 2024 There are probably about 100 times as many PhDs today as there were in, say, 1924. Factual · 8 Oct 2024 Field building and careers
Mostly true Factual 8 Oct 2024 The average millennial is having a tougher time economically than their boomer parents did at the same point in life. Factual · 8 Oct 2024 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Apr 2024 Carl Schmitt became somewhat entangled with the Nazis and later distanced himself from them. Factual · Apr 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual Apr 2024 The word 'apocalypse' in Greek means 'unveiling'. Factual · Apr 2024 Other
Mostly true Factual Apr 2024 Anti-communism was in some ways Peter Thiel's formative political idea as a teenager in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Factual · Apr 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual Apr 2024 Debates about religion in Europe were settled by the 1648 Treaty of Westphalia. Factual · Apr 2024 Other
Resolved true Factual Apr 2024 In discussing the katechon, Thiel said the Roman emperor Nero was the proto-Antichrist. Factual · Apr 2024 Other
Mostly true Factual Apr 2024 Peter Thiel said the political slogan of the Antichrist is "peace and safety," citing, he thought, 1 Thessalonians 5:3. Factual · Apr 2024 Other
Resolved true Factual Apr 2024 Peter Thiel was extremely influenced by the 1997 book The Sovereign Individual by Rees-Mogg and Davidson. Factual · Apr 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Factual Apr 2024 Satan appears in the Bible as seen by humans only at the very end of the world; elsewhere he only talks to God or Christ. Factual · Apr 2024 Other
Mixed Factual Apr 2024 Thiel said he believed society's bias toward testing math ability began during the French Revolution, because verbal ability was believed to run in families. Factual · Apr 2024 Other
Resolved true Factual Apr 2024 Five or six years before 2024, Thiel made the argument that if crypto is libertarian, AI is communist. Factual · Apr 2024 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual Apr 2024 René Girard often said that Christ was the first political atheist. Factual · Apr 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual Apr 2024 It is much harder to exit the United States than it was 20 to 30 years ago. Factual · Apr 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual Apr 2024 After 9/11 there was not much terrorism, and instead the US got the Patriot Act, extensive tracking of money flows and monitoring of people. Factual · Apr 2024 Other global risks
Resolved true Factual 9 Nov 2022 China has about four times the population of the United States. Factual · 9 Nov 2022 Other
Mostly true Factual 9 Nov 2022 California is not a poor state. Factual · 9 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 9 Nov 2022 The average California government worker is paid twice as much as the average private sector worker in California. Factual · 9 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 7 Feb 2020 China's per capita GDP is close to $10,000. Factual · 7 Feb 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 7 Feb 2020 The US economy was not deeply connected to the Soviet Union's during the Cold War. Factual · 7 Feb 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 7 Feb 2020 The US and Chinese economies are very deeply connected. Factual · 7 Feb 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 7 Feb 2020 The main way middle-class people in the US accumulate capital is by owning real estate, their house. Factual · 7 Feb 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 11 Jan 2017 Thiel said he had watched the first season of HBO's Silicon Valley, that the character based on him died, and that he liked the character. Factual · 11 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 21 Jul 2016 Thiel does not agree with every plan in the Republican Party's platform. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 21 Jul 2016 Neither Peter Thiel nor Donald Trump is a politician. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 21 Jul 2016 Peter Thiel builds companies and supports people building new things, from social networks to rocket ships. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Factual 15 Jun 2012 A Chinese man tried to launch a rocket into space in the 11th century. Factual · 15 Jun 2012 Technology
Mostly true Factual 1 May 2009 In America, people are imprisoned for using mild drugs, tortured by the government, and forced to bail out reckless financial companies. Factual · 1 May 2009 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 13 Apr 2009 Thiel has focused his efforts as entrepreneur and investor on new technologies, notably the Internet, that may create a new space for freedom. Factual · 13 Apr 2009 Technology
Mostly true Factual 13 Apr 2009 The 2008-09 financial crisis was caused by too much debt and leverage, facilitated by a government that insured against moral hazards, and the response involves more debt, leverage and government. Factual · 13 Apr 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 13 Apr 2009 As a Stanford undergraduate, Thiel started a student newspaper that he says scored some limited victories, most notably in undoing speech codes instituted by the university. Factual · 13 Apr 2009 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 13 Apr 2009 In the late 1990s, PayPal's founding vision centered on creating a new world currency free from all government control and dilution. Factual · 13 Apr 2009 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2007 René Girard, like Schmitt and Strauss, believes there is a disturbing truth about the city and humanity, and that the Enlightenment whitewashed away the issue of human violence. Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Factual 2007 In Girard's view, the Judeo-Western revelation may be slow because humans do not wish to hear its message, but it is not reversible. Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 2007 Leo Strauss believes there is a truth about human nature that can in principle be known to humanity. Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 2007 For Girard, a post-Darwinian account of humanity must somehow combine the gradualism of Darwinian evolution with the essentialism of the pre-Darwinians. Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Factual 2007 No real economic development took place through postwar wealth transfers, and even in the best cases the money returned to the West in Swiss accounts of Third World dictators. Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2007 The United States became more secular and materialist over time, though most citizens continued to call themselves Christians. Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 2007 In René Girard's theory, knowledge of the founding murder is driven by the historical working of the Judeo-Western revelation. Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Factual 2007 The original expropriation of oil built as many as half of the greatest fortunes of the twentieth century. Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2007 Thomas Hobbes boasted of having deserted and run away from fighting in a religious war. Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
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Peter Thiel

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Factual Philosophy, ethics and society

“For Girard, the knowledge of the founding murder is driven by the historical working of the Judeo-Western revelation.”

Peter Thiel, essay author 2007 The Straussian Moment (gwern.net (PDF))

In René Girard's theory, knowledge of the founding murder is driven by the historical working of the Judeo-Western revelation.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

True: Girard's works (for example 'Things Hidden Since the Foundation of the World' and 'I See Satan Fall Like Lightning') or standard scholarly summaries state that the revealing of the founding murder (the scapegoat mechanism) comes about through the historical working of the Judeo-Christian scriptures or revelation. Mostly true: this is substantially Girard's view, but the wording slightly distorts it, for example 'Judeo-Western' where Girard stresses specifically the Judeo-Christian or biblical revelation. Mixed: Girard credits the revelation only partly, giving comparable weight to other causes. Mostly false: Girard ties the revelation to the Bible but explicitly denies it works historically, or says it does so only marginally. False: Girard attributes knowledge of the founding murder to sources unrelated to the biblical revelation.

Evidence

  1. [PDF] Overheated Atmosphere - TOBIAS-lib (Cooled Down Love and an Overheated Atmosphere: René Girard on Ecology and Apocalypticism in the Anthropocene, Petra Steinmair-Pösel) TOBIAS-lib, University of Tübingen repository · 16 September 2025
    “By revealing the founding murder, Christianity destroyed the ignorance and superstition that are indispensable”
  2. The Atoning Death of the Last Scapegoat Acton Institute (Religion & Liberty) · 28 October 2026
    “Moreover, in Things Hidden Since the Foundation of the World, Girard argues that the violent origins of culture remained hidden until the Paschal Mystery revealed the scapegoat mechanism specifically and our penchant for scapegoating more generally.”
  3. Girard Among the Girardians - First Things First Things · 1 March 1996
    “The insight on the edge of which Merleau-Ponty trembled in 1947 is an insight into the failure of mythology after Christ: the election of a scapegoat may in fact have worked to found culture in the days before biblical revelation, but the Gospels reveal how it works”
  4. Girard Among the Girardians - First Things First Things · 1 March 1996
    “Often in the Old Testament and overwhelmingly in the New, the mythology of scapegoat sacrifice is penetrated and thereby rendered ineffectual.”

Reasoning

Independent scholarly summaries say that for Girard, the founding murder was revealed through biblical and Christian revelation. E2 reports Girard's argument that the violent origins of culture stayed hidden until the Paschal Mystery revealed the scapegoat mechanism. E3 and E4 say the Gospels, and to a lesser degree the Old Testament, penetrate scapegoat mythology. E1 adds that by revealing the founding murder, Christianity destroyed "the ignorance and superstition that are indispensable"; the quoted passage breaks off before saying what they are indispensable to. This is substantially the claim, but the evidence ties the revelation to the Judeo-Christian scriptures, especially the Gospels, not to a broader 'Judeo-Western' source, which the criteria treat as a slight distortion.

Cite this claim

Peter Thiel, “In René Girard's theory, knowledge of the founding murder is driven by the historical working of the Judeo-Western revelation.” (said 2007). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_e8de9bbee448, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e8de9bbee448

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