Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
84 73 93 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
46 27 65 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
60 40 79
All types combined: 70 (likely 61 to 78, medium confidence), from 29 claims: 16 factual claims, 7 predictions, 6 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Ørsted's claims
“Business performance EBITDA is expected to be DKK 15-17 billion in 2014.”
DONG Energy (Ørsted), company announcement February 2014 Announcement of financial results for 2013 - Improved earnings and strengthened capital base (Ørsted (DONG Energy))
DONG Energy expects business performance EBITDA of DKK 15-17 billion in 2014.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Compare DONG Energy's reported 2014 full-year business performance EBITDA with the predicted DKK 15-17 billion range. True: the reported figure is between DKK 15.0 and 17.0 billion inclusive. Mostly true: it falls outside the range by no more than DKK 0.3 billion (DKK 14.7-15.0bn or 17.0-17.3bn). Mostly false: it is outside the range by more than DKK 0.3 billion but no more than DKK 1.5 billion. False: it is outside the range by more than DKK 1.5 billion. Mixed is not used. Later revisions of the guidance during the year do not change the test, which applies to the original range.
Evidence
- [PDF] FINANCIAL REPORT FULL YEAR 2014 DONG Energy (Ørsted) · 5 February 2015 Own record
“EBITDA of DKK 16.4bn (up 9% y/y)”
- interim financial report first nine month 2014 DONG Energy (Ørsted) · October 2014 Own record
“Business performance EBITDA for 2014 is expected to exceed DKK 16 billion compared with the previous outlook of DKK 15-17 billion”
Reasoning
DONG Energy's full-year 2014 results presentation [E1] reports 2014 EBITDA of DKK 16.4bn, which falls inside the predicted DKK 15-17bn range. The Q3 2014 report [E2] shows the outlook was later revised to exceed DKK 16bn and confirms the original range was for business performance EBITDA. Under the criteria that revision does not change the test. Both sources come from the company itself, but E1 is its formal reported result rather than a general statement, and E1 does not explicitly label the figure 'business performance'.
Cite this claim
Ørsted, “DONG Energy expects business performance EBITDA of DKK 15-17 billion in 2014.” (said February 2014). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_cc220943deb3, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cc220943deb3
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Ørsted? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.