ClaimsØrsted

“Business performance EBITDA is expected to be DKK 15-17 billion in 2014.”

DONG Energy (Ørsted), company announcement February 2014 Announcement of financial results for 2013 - Improved earnings and strengthened capital base (Ørsted (DONG Energy)) archived copy

Prediction Their own work or organisation

DONG Energy expects business performance EBITDA of DKK 15-17 billion in 2014.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The rule for a forecast that gives a range or a bound: the reported figure has to meet it as stated. A figure outside a range counts as not met whether it came in above or below, so beating a forecast is scored like missing it. The reasoning says which it was.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Compare DONG Energy's reported 2014 full-year business performance EBITDA with the predicted DKK 15-17 billion range. True: the reported figure is between DKK 15.0 and 17.0 billion inclusive. Mostly true: it falls outside the range by no more than DKK 0.3 billion (DKK 14.7-15.0bn or 17.0-17.3bn). Mostly false: it is outside the range by more than DKK 0.3 billion but no more than DKK 1.5 billion. False: it is outside the range by more than DKK 1.5 billion. Mixed is not used. Later revisions of the guidance during the year do not change the test, which applies to the original range.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 [PDF] FINANCIAL REPORT FULL YEAR 2014 DONG Energy (Ørsted) · 5 February 2015 Own record

    “EBITDA of DKK 16.4bn (up 9% y/y)”

  2. E2 interim financial report first nine month 2014 DONG Energy (Ørsted) · October 2014 Own record

    “Business performance EBITDA for 2014 is expected to exceed DKK 16 billion compared with the previous outlook of DKK 15-17 billion”

Reasoning

DONG Energy's full-year 2014 results presentation [E1] reports 2014 EBITDA of DKK 16.4bn, which falls inside the predicted DKK 15-17bn range. The Q3 2014 report [E2] shows the outlook was later revised to exceed DKK 16bn and confirms the original range was for business performance EBITDA. Under the criteria that revision does not change the test. Both sources come from the company itself, but E1 is its formal reported result rather than a general statement, and E1 does not explicitly label the figure 'business performance'.

Cite this claim

Ørsted, “DONG Energy expects business performance EBITDA of DKK 15-17 billion in 2014.” (said February 2014). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_cc220943deb3, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cc220943deb3

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Ørsted

  1. Resolved false Prediction February 2018
    “Gross investments for 2018 are expected to amount to DKK 16-18 billion, reflecting a high level of activity related to our offshore wind farm projects, the biomass conversion of Asnæs Power Station…”

    Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation.

  2. Resolved false Prediction February 2018
    “EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements is expected to be DKK 12-13 billion in 2018 compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017.”

    Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017.

  3. Resolved true Prediction February 2018
    “We still expect a 50% farm-down of Hornsea 1, either in H2 2018 or in 2019.”

    Ørsted expects to farm down 50% of Hornsea 1 either in H2 2018 or in 2019.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 2017
    “The plant is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017.”

    DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 2017
    “With capacity of 1.2GW, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and our biggest investment ever.”

    With 1.2GW capacity, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and DONG Energy's biggest investment ever.

All of them

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