ClaimsØrsted

“EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements is expected to be DKK 12-13 billion in 2018 compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017.”

Ørsted February 2018 Annual report 2017 - Strong results support Ørsted's green transformation (Ørsted) archived copy

Prediction Their own work or organisation

Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The rule for a forecast that gives a range or a bound: the reported figure has to meet it as stated. A figure outside a range counts as not met whether it came in above or below, so beating a forecast is scored like missing it. The reasoning says which it was.

What would count as true or false

Compare Ørsted's reported 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements with the predicted DKK 12-13 billion range. True: the reported figure is between DKK 12.0 and 13.0 billion inclusive. Mostly true: it is outside the range by no more than DKK 0.3 billion. Mostly false: it is outside the range by more than DKK 0.3 billion but no more than DKK 1.5 billion. False: it is outside the range by more than DKK 1.5 billion. Mixed is not used. The figure used must be the one Ørsted reports on the same basis as the guidance (excluding new partnerships); if Ørsted's own reconciliation is used, the excluded items must be identifiable in the report.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 Ørsted Annual report 2018 Ørsted Own record

    “EBITDA (excluding new partnerships) increased by 18% to DKK 15.0 billion.”

  2. E2 [PDF] investor-presentation-q4-2018.pdf - Ørsted Ørsted · 31 January 2019 Own record

    “Offshore new partnerships DKK 15.1bn:”

Reasoning

Ørsted's 2018 annual report states that EBITDA excluding new partnerships rose 18% to DKK 15.0 billion (E1). The Q4 2018 presentation separately identifies DKK 15.1 billion from new offshore partnerships, which confirms the excluded items (E2). DKK 15.0 billion is DKK 2.0 billion above the top of the predicted DKK 12-13 billion range, beyond the DKK 1.5 billion threshold, so the claim resolves false. Both sources are from Ørsted, but they are its specific reported financial results on the same basis as the guidance.

Cite this claim

Ørsted, “Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017.” (said February 2018). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_9cc1510ec68d, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9cc1510ec68d

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Ørsted, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Ørsted

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    “Gross investments for 2018 are expected to amount to DKK 16-18 billion, reflecting a high level of activity related to our offshore wind farm projects, the biomass conversion of Asnæs Power Station…”

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  2. Resolved true Prediction February 2018
    “We still expect a 50% farm-down of Hornsea 1, either in H2 2018 or in 2019.”

    Ørsted expects to farm down 50% of Hornsea 1 either in H2 2018 or in 2019.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 2017
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    DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 2017
    “With capacity of 1.2GW, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and our biggest investment ever.”

    With 1.2GW capacity, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and DONG Energy's biggest investment ever.

  5. Mostly false Prediction February 2014
    “Net investments for 2014-2015 are expected to be around DKK 30 billion.”

    DONG Energy expects net investments for 2014-2015 to be around DKK 30 billion.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.