Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation.
Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The rule for a forecast that gives a range or a bound: the reported figure has to meet it as stated. A figure outside a range counts as not met whether it came in above or below, so beating a forecast is scored like missing it. The reasoning says which it was.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
True if Ørsted's actual reported gross investments for 2018 were within DKK 16–18bn and included spending on offshore wind projects, the Asnæs biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Mostly true if the figure is outside the range by ≤DKK 0.5bn with those components present. Mixed if outside by up to ~DKK 2bn. Mostly false if outside by up to ~DKK 4bn. False if further off.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 [PDF] Interim financial report - Ørsted Ørsted · 26 April 2018 Own record
“Gross investments for 2018 are expected to amount to DKK 16-18 billion. The outlook reflects a high level of activity in Wind Power (Walney Extension, Hornsea 1, Borkum Riffgrund 2, Borssele 1 and 2 and Hornsea 2), biomass conversions of Asnæs Power Station and installation of smart meters.”
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E2 [PDF] Interim financial report - First nine months 2018 - Ørsted Ørsted · 1 November 2018 Own record
“On 8 October, we increased our gross investment guidance from DKK 16-18 billion to DKK 23-25 billion following the agreement to acquire Deepwater Wind.”
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E3 [PDF] investor-presentation-q4-2018.pdf - Ørsted Ørsted · 31 January 2019 Own record
“Investment growth vs. original guidance of DKK 16-18bn”
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E4 [PDF] investor-presentation-q4-2018.pdf - Ørsted Ørsted · 31 January 2019 Own record
“Acquisitions of DKK 9.6bn:”
Reasoning
E1 restated the DKK 16-18bn 2018 gross investment outlook, driven by offshore wind, the Asnæs conversion and smart meters. On 8 October 2018 Ørsted raised the guidance to DKK 23-25bn after agreeing to acquire Deepwater Wind (E2). The Q4 2018 presentation reports investment above the original range, driven by DKK 9.6bn of acquisitions and only partly offset by lower construction spend (E3, E4). The exact realised total is not legible in the evidence, but the late-year guidance and reported drivers put 2018 gross investment roughly DKK 5bn or more above the range, which resolves false under the criteria.
Cite this claim
Ørsted, “Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation.” (said February 2018). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_20db868548d0, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_20db868548d0
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Ørsted
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Resolved false
“EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements is expected to be DKK 12-13 billion in 2018 compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017.”
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Resolved true
“We still expect a 50% farm-down of Hornsea 1, either in H2 2018 or in 2019.”
Ørsted expects to farm down 50% of Hornsea 1 either in H2 2018 or in 2019.
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Resolved false
“The plant is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017.”
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Mostly true
“With capacity of 1.2GW, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and our biggest investment ever.”
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Mostly false
“Net investments for 2014-2015 are expected to be around DKK 30 billion.”
DONG Energy expects net investments for 2014-2015 to be around DKK 30 billion.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.