ClaimsØrsted

“Net investments for 2014-2015 are expected to be around DKK 30 billion.”

DONG Energy (Ørsted), company announcement February 2014 Announcement of financial results for 2013 - Improved earnings and strengthened capital base (Ørsted (DONG Energy)) archived copy

Prediction Their own work or organisation

DONG Energy expects net investments for 2014-2015 to be around DKK 30 billion.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

Judge on actual reported net investments for 2014 plus 2015 combined. True if the total is within roughly ±10% of DKK 30bn (about DKK 27–33bn). Mostly true if within ±15% (about DKK 25.5–34.5bn). Mixed if within ±25%. Mostly false if within ±40%. False if further from DKK 30bn than that.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 [PDF] FINANCIAL REPORT FULL YEAR 2015 DONG Energy (Ørsted) investor presentation · 4 February 2016 Own record

    “Gross investments-18,693-15,359Net investments-16,120-4,706”

  2. E2 UK Interim Financial Report 9M 2015 - v7 DONG Energy (Ørsted) interim financial report · 29 October 2015 Own record

    “Net investments of around DKK 35-40 billion are expected for the period 2015-2016”

Reasoning

The FY 2015 financial report [E1] lists net investments of DKK 4,706m for 2014 and DKK 16,120m for 2015, shown as negative cash-flow figures, for a combined total of about DKK 20.8bn. That is roughly 31% below the predicted DKK 30bn, inside the ±40% band and outside the ±25% band, which the criteria rate mostly false. E2 gives an outlook for a different period (2015-2016) and does not change the 2014-2015 total.

Cite this claim

Ørsted, “DONG Energy expects net investments for 2014-2015 to be around DKK 30 billion.” (said February 2014). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_f400fce1031c, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f400fce1031c

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Ørsted

  1. Resolved false Prediction February 2018
    “Gross investments for 2018 are expected to amount to DKK 16-18 billion, reflecting a high level of activity related to our offshore wind farm projects, the biomass conversion of Asnæs Power Station…”

    Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation.

  2. Resolved false Prediction February 2018
    “EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements is expected to be DKK 12-13 billion in 2018 compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017.”

    Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017.

  3. Resolved true Prediction February 2018
    “We still expect a 50% farm-down of Hornsea 1, either in H2 2018 or in 2019.”

    Ørsted expects to farm down 50% of Hornsea 1 either in H2 2018 or in 2019.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 2017
    “The plant is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017.”

    DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 2017
    “With capacity of 1.2GW, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and our biggest investment ever.”

    With 1.2GW capacity, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and DONG Energy's biggest investment ever.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.