| Mixed |
Factual |
31 Mar 2026 |
The recent corporate layoffs were not caused by AI.
Factual · 31 Mar 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
The price of AI is falling faster than Moore's Law.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
The DeepSeek model is completely open-source and anyone can download and run it.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
Within 6 to 12 months of a frontier model's release, a small model with the same capabilities appears.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
The revenue growth rate of leading AI companies is faster than that of any previous technology wave Andreessen has seen.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
Neural networks were explored by a small group of people for about 80 years.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
Consumer AI products commonly have monthly price tiers of $200 or $300.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
In the 1980s, when Andreessen was in college, AI was a niche field and everyone thought it would never come true.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
There are 5 billion people on Earth using some version of mobile broadband Internet.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
Within less than 12 months, four or five Chinese companies caught up to the frontier of the AI industry.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
Cursor, though it started by calling large models, is building its own AI model.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
8 Oct 2025 |
ChatGPT is today a better doctor than your doctor, with almost a hundred percent certainty.
Factual · 8 Oct 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Factual |
8 Oct 2025 |
A significant percentage of U.S. jobs are licensed, unionized or civil service in a way that means they cannot literally be replaced.
Factual · 8 Oct 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mixed |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Political donations in Silicon Valley go 90 to 99% to one party.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Substack started from scratch and declared up front that it would be a free speech platform.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
Andreessen said energy independence and large net energy exports are a matter of choice, and that he thinks the new Trump administration will choose to pursue them.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
The incoming Trump administration will do as much as it can through executive orders and then use legislation and regulatory changes for the rest.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Marc Andreessen is a volunteer for the Trump administration when helpful, does not make its decisions and cannot speak for it.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
The Stanford Internet Observatory was basically funded by the federal government to be a third-party censorship operation.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
The US Constitution requires Congress to authorize money to be spent by the executive branch.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Under the current interpretation of appropriations, a president who does not want to spend appropriated money cannot decline to spend it.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Getting Amish voters to the polls was one of the reasons Trump won the 2024 election.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Incumbent universities, through accreditation, are in complete control of who gets access to federal student loan money.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Marc Andreessen does not speak for DOGE and is not in charge of DOGE.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
The United States is the main place where the world's best and brightest foreign students get educated.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
The US is adding a trillion dollars to the national debt every 100 days, and it is now passing the size of the Defense Department budget and compounding.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
The system that has been built for these people is paid for virtually 100% by taxpayer money.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Marc Andreessen has made the argument in favour of high-skilled immigration and H-1B visas many times.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Marc Andreessen joined the Facebook board in 2007.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
16 Oct 2023 |
Markets are by far the most effective way to lift vast numbers of people out of poverty, and always have been.
Factual · 16 Oct 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
16 Oct 2023 |
The Precautionary Principle was invented to prevent the large-scale deployment of civilian nuclear power.
Factual · 16 Oct 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
16 Oct 2023 |
The only three sources of economic growth are population growth, natural resource utilization, and technology.
Factual · 16 Oct 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
16 Oct 2023 |
In a market system, society captures about 98% of the value of technological innovation, a 50:1 ratio to the innovating company's share.
Factual · 16 Oct 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Richard Nixon created a project in 1972 called Project Independence, and proposed building 1,000 new US nuclear reactors.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
In the research literature, IQ is typically linked to outcomes with a correlation of about 0.4 to 0.5.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Ray Kurzweil kind of took that idea to the next level and applied it specifically to AI.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
The precautionary principle was developed by the German Greens in the 1970s.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false |
Prediction |
2 Sep 2023 |
The EU may pass a law as soon as October 2023 that effectively bans AI inside the EU.
Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
That did not happen, after the President created the EPA and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which aimed to prevent it.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
2 Sep 2023 |
There will be Chinese AI systems that embody Communist ideology.
Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Almost nothing is 40% causative of anything, apart from a very small number of exceptions.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
AI development has a critical mass basically in two places in the world, the United States and China.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
The Transformer algorithm, a neural net form that works in a sort of generalized way, was a recent theoretical breakthrough.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
AI development has a critical mass basically in two places in the world, the United States and China.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
The Transformer algorithm was invented in 2017.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
Research establishes that in human affairs, higher intelligence leads to better outcomes in essentially every measurable aspect of human welfare and life quality.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Andreessen said he was pretty confident that within roughly two years of June 2023, AI systems' limited persistent memory across sessions would be a solved problem.
Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
As of June 2023 there are chip shortages throughout the AI ecosystem, and NVIDIA cannot make enough chips.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Andreessen said he thought the rate of AI technological improvement from mid-2023 onward would be very rapid.
Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
Outside the San Francisco Bay Area, AI development is overwhelmingly in Beijing and Shanghai.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mixed |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
Hundreds of studies' conclusions on the benefits of intelligence all correlate with fluid intelligence, the ability to rapidly assimilate knowledge and use it to solve problems.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
The AI being discussed is not, strictly speaking, human intelligence.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
Top-end universities can teach only a microscopic percentage of the 4 million new 18-year-olds in the US each year.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
As of April 2020 there were no therapies or vaccine for the coronavirus, despite years of warnings about bat-borne coronaviruses.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
Energy experts say all carbon-based electrical power generation on the planet could be replaced by a few thousand new zero-emission nuclear reactors.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
American manufacturing output is higher than ever.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
Milton Friedman said the great public sector mistake is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
The US government has never built a system to distribute money quickly to citizens and businesses when needed.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
As of April 2020 the US lacked enough coronavirus tests and test materials, including cotton swabs and common reagents.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Other global risks |
| Mixed |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
As of April 2020 there were not enough ventilators, negative pressure rooms and ICU beds.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
One-to-one tutoring can reliably increase education outcomes by two standard deviations (the Bloom two-sigma effect).
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Science and research methods |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
18 Apr 2020 |
The essay "It's Time to Build" will be the target of criticism.
Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Apr 2020 |
Things built in huge quantities, like computers and TVs, drop rapidly in price.
Factual · 18 Apr 2020 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen Horowitz has since reversed course almost completely and is now deeply invested in healthcare.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Supersonic passenger flight with the Concorde existed previously but no longer exists.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
A single individual can now build a self-driving car, whereas ten years ago it was a DARPA-funded research challenge.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
In the American economy, the rate of job creation and destruction is falling rather than rising.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Gross job creation and destruction figures are not reported; the US destroys over 5 million jobs and creates over 6 million jobs per quarter.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
This new AI technology is the same technology Google's AI used to beat a human Go player.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
The sesame scene in season one of Silicon Valley is loosely based on Peter Thiel.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Warren Buffett invested in Heinz ketchup.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
When Andreessen arrived in Silicon Valley, the overwhelming mood was that the PC was finished and the Valley was probably done too.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
1 Jan 2018 |
In the three months after January 2018, the US economy will destroy more jobs than the World Economic Forum projected AI would destroy over the next five years.
Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Roof inspection, which involves a person climbing up on a roof and taking notes, is a fairly dangerous job.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Peter Thiel flatly says the iPhone does not count as innovation.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Bitcoin is still working today exactly as it did in previous years, despite crashes.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen Horowitz initially made no healthcare-related investments.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen said "we" repeatedly see people fail because they price too low ("too hungry to eat") and so cannot afford the sales and marketing needed to get anybody to buy the product.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Silicon Valley has become increasingly assertive in entering other industries directly, rather than only selling tools.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
1 Jan 2018 |
Andreessen Horowitz's portfolio companies are getting more assertive about entering markets that earlier founders may not have been willing to enter.
Factual · 1 Jan 2018 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
28 May 2017 |
In 1992 it was widely held that the internet was for academics and nerds, with no use case for ordinary people.
Factual · 28 May 2017 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
28 May 2017 |
The University of Illinois, where Andreessen went to college, was then one of four US universities government-funded as hubs for NSFNET, which became the internet.
Factual · 28 May 2017 |
Technology |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
28 May 2017 |
ARPA (now DARPA) funded a military network originally conceived for nuclear command and control.
Factual · 28 May 2017 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
As of 2011, Amazon was the world's largest bookseller.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
As of August 2011, major public technology companies had all-time low price/earnings ratios.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
Skype, the fastest growing telecom company, was just bought by Microsoft for $8.5 billion.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
As of 2011, Netflix was the largest video service by number of subscribers.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved false |
Prediction |
20 Aug 2011 |
Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones.
Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 |
Technology |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
Marc Andreessen said Disney had to buy Pixar, a software company, to remain relevant in animated movies.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
20 Aug 2011 |
Videogame makers are today's fastest growing entertainment companies, with the industry growing to $60 billion from $30 billion five years earlier.
Factual · 20 Aug 2011 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Prediction |
Jun 1995 |
George Gilder predicts that within five to ten years the Internet will essentially be free.
Prediction · Jun 1995 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
Netscape did not have a major sales force in Europe as of June 1995.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
The government set the OSI networking standard, which nobody uses.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
Cryptography is export-controlled by the US government as a munition, and Netscape makes exportable versions of its software, which are the ones predominantly used on the Internet.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
The Internet already existed when Andreessen began working at the university lab, and everybody there used it.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
The networks in question all use TCP/IP, which was not a government standard.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
Jun 1995 |
Catalogs of Internet resources will be supported by advertising in the future.
Prediction · Jun 1995 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
In June 1995, Andreessen said he thought Netscape had about six million Navigator users on the public network, not counting users behind firewalls.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Factual |
Jun 1995 |
Early in his time at the University of Illinois, Andreessen started working in a research lab at the university's physics research facility.
Factual · Jun 1995 |
Their own work or organisation |