Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
67 61 73 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
60 44 76 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 66 (likely 61 to 72, high confidence), from 105 claims: 94 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Marc Andreessen's claims
1 claim
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved false | Prediction | 20 Aug 2011 | Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones. Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 | Technology |
“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones, giving every individual with such a phone instant access to the full power of the Internet, every moment of every day.”
Marc Andreessen, a16z co-founder, essay author 20 August 2011 Why Software Is Eating the World (a16z)
Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones.
Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The claim is that at least 5 billion people worldwide own smartphones by 2021, ten years after August 2011. The measure is unique people who own or use a smartphone. Smartphone connections or SIM subscriptions do not count, and neither do people who own only basic or feature phones. Use the most authoritative estimate for 2021, from GSMA Intelligence, ITU, Ericsson Mobility Report or a comparable industry tracker. TRUE: unique smartphone owners or users reached 5.0 billion or more at some point in or before 2021. MOSTLY TRUE: not used, because 'at least five billion' is a stated bound. MOSTLY FALSE: (a) the figure was just below the bound, at 4.9 billion or more but under 5.0 billion; or (b) the only figure above 5 billion counts something other than people owning smartphones, such as smartphone connections or all unique mobile subscribers, while unique smartphone owners were clearly fewer. FALSE: credible estimates put unique smartphone owners or users in 2021 below 4.9 billion. Reaching 5 billion only after 2021 is mostly false at most.
Evidence
- Strategy Analytics: Half the World Owns a Smartphone Strategy Analytics (via Business Wire) · 24 June 2021
“We estimate the global smartphone user base has risen dramatically from just 30k people in 1994 to 1.00 billion in 2012, and a record 3.95 billion today in June 2021.”
- Strategy Analytics: Half the World Owns a Smartphone Strategy Analytics (via Business Wire) · 24 June 2021
“We predict 5 billion people will be using smartphones worldwide by 2030.”
- The Mobile Economy 2021 GSM Association (GSMA Intelligence) · 2021
“6 billion smartphone connections worldwide”
- Marc Andreessen — Prediction Receipts Prediction Receipts (wevegotreceipts.com) · 7 September 2026
“Smartphone users hit ~5B by 2022 per GSMA Intelligence — landed essentially on schedule.”
Reasoning
Strategy Analytics estimated the global smartphone user base at 3.95 billion people in June 2021 [E1]. It forecast that 5 billion people would be using smartphones worldwide by 2030 [E2]. GSMA's figure of 6 billion is for smartphone connections, not unique people, so it doesn't count under the criteria [E3]. A later prediction-tracking site says smartphone users reached about 5 billion by 2022, per GSMA Intelligence, and describes the forecast as essentially on schedule [E4]. The credible 2021 estimate is well below 4.9 billion, so the claim resolves false.
Cite this claim
Marc Andreessen, “Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones.” (said 20 August 2011). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_b324e4208ae2, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b324e4208ae2
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Marc Andreessen? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.