ClaimsMarc Andreessen

“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones, giving every individual with such a phone instant access to the full power of the Internet, every moment of every day.”

Marc Andreessen, a16z co-founder, essay author 20 August 2011 Why Software Is Eating the World (a16z) archived copy

Prediction Technology

Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The claim is that at least 5 billion people worldwide own smartphones by 2021, ten years after August 2011. The measure is unique people who own or use a smartphone. Smartphone connections or SIM subscriptions do not count, and neither do people who own only basic or feature phones. Use the most authoritative estimate for 2021, from GSMA Intelligence, ITU, Ericsson Mobility Report or a comparable industry tracker. TRUE: unique smartphone owners or users reached 5.0 billion or more at some point in or before 2021. MOSTLY TRUE: not used, because 'at least five billion' is a stated bound. MOSTLY FALSE: (a) the figure was just below the bound, at 4.9 billion or more but under 5.0 billion; or (b) the only figure above 5 billion counts something other than people owning smartphones, such as smartphone connections or all unique mobile subscribers, while unique smartphone owners were clearly fewer. FALSE: credible estimates put unique smartphone owners or users in 2021 below 4.9 billion. Reaching 5 billion only after 2021 is mostly false at most.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Strategy Analytics: Half the World Owns a Smartphone Strategy Analytics (via Business Wire) · 24 June 2021

    “We estimate the global smartphone user base has risen dramatically from just 30k people in 1994 to 1.00 billion in 2012, and a record 3.95 billion today in June 2021.”

  2. E2 Strategy Analytics: Half the World Owns a Smartphone Strategy Analytics (via Business Wire) · 24 June 2021

    “We predict 5 billion people will be using smartphones worldwide by 2030.”

  3. E3 The Mobile Economy 2021 GSM Association (GSMA Intelligence) · 2021

    “6 billion smartphone connections worldwide”

  4. E4 Marc Andreessen — Prediction Receipts Prediction Receipts (wevegotreceipts.com) · 7 September 2026

    “Smartphone users hit ~5B by 2022 per GSMA Intelligence — landed essentially on schedule.”

Reasoning

Strategy Analytics estimated the global smartphone user base at 3.95 billion people in June 2021 [E1]. It forecast that 5 billion people would be using smartphones worldwide by 2030 [E2]. GSMA's figure of 6 billion is for smartphone connections, not unique people, so it doesn't count under the criteria [E3]. A later prediction-tracking site says smartphone users reached about 5 billion by 2022, per GSMA Intelligence, and describes the forecast as essentially on schedule [E4]. The credible 2021 estimate is well below 4.9 billion, so the claim resolves false.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones.” (said 20 August 2011). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_b324e4208ae2, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b324e4208ae2

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Marc Andreessen, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Marc Andreessen

  1. Mostly true Prediction 26 January 2025
    “They’re going to do as much as they can through executive orders, and then they’re going to do legislation and regulatory changes for the rest.”

    The incoming Trump administration will do as much as it can through executive orders and then use legislation and regulatory changes for the rest.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 26 January 2025
    “It’s purely a question of choice, and I think the new administration’s going to do that.”

    Andreessen said energy independence and large net energy exports are a matter of choice, and that he thinks the new Trump administration will choose to pursue them.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 2 September 2023
    “they have a law that looks like it may pass as soon as October that effectively bans AI inside the Eu.”

    The EU may pass a law as soon as October 2023 that effectively bans AI inside the EU.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 2 September 2023
    “Look, you're going to have Chinese AI.”

    There will be Chinese AI systems that embody Communist ideology.

  5. Mixed Prediction 12 June 2023
    “I'm pretty confident within, call it two years, that will be a solved problem”

    Andreessen said he was pretty confident that within roughly two years of June 2023, AI systems' limited persistent memory across sessions would be a solved problem.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.