ClaimsPeople

Marc Andreessen

Marc Andreessen co-created the Mosaic browser, cofounded Netscape, and is cofounder and general partner of the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.

1,009 claims collected, 216 researched, 105 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    67 61 73

    High confidence, 94 factual claims resolved. From 11 documents, 1995 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 44 unresolvable, 17 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    60 44 76

    Low confidence, 11 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 1995 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 41 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 4 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 3 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 66 (likely 61 to 72, high confidence), from 105 claims: 94 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Marc Andreessen's claims

105 claims · page 1 of 2

105 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mixed Factual 31 Mar 2026 The recent corporate layoffs were not caused by AI. Factual · 31 Mar 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 7 Jan 2026 The price of AI is falling faster than Moore's Law. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 7 Jan 2026 The DeepSeek model is completely open-source and anyone can download and run it. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 7 Jan 2026 Within 6 to 12 months of a frontier model's release, a small model with the same capabilities appears. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 7 Jan 2026 The revenue growth rate of leading AI companies is faster than that of any previous technology wave Andreessen has seen. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 7 Jan 2026 Neural networks were explored by a small group of people for about 80 years. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 7 Jan 2026 Consumer AI products commonly have monthly price tiers of $200 or $300. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 7 Jan 2026 In the 1980s, when Andreessen was in college, AI was a niche field and everyone thought it would never come true. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 7 Jan 2026 There are 5 billion people on Earth using some version of mobile broadband Internet. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 Technology
Mixed Factual 7 Jan 2026 Within less than 12 months, four or five Chinese companies caught up to the frontier of the AI industry. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 7 Jan 2026 Cursor, though it started by calling large models, is building its own AI model. Factual · 7 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Mostly false Factual 8 Oct 2025 ChatGPT is today a better doctor than your doctor, with almost a hundred percent certainty. Factual · 8 Oct 2025 AI capabilities
Mixed Factual 8 Oct 2025 A significant percentage of U.S. jobs are licensed, unionized or civil service in a way that means they cannot literally be replaced. Factual · 8 Oct 2025 AI, the economy and work
Mixed Factual 26 Jan 2025 Political donations in Silicon Valley go 90 to 99% to one party. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 Substack started from scratch and declared up front that it would be a free speech platform. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 26 Jan 2025 Andreessen said energy independence and large net energy exports are a matter of choice, and that he thinks the new Trump administration will choose to pursue them. Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Prediction 26 Jan 2025 The incoming Trump administration will do as much as it can through executive orders and then use legislation and regulatory changes for the rest. Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen is a volunteer for the Trump administration when helpful, does not make its decisions and cannot speak for it. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mixed Factual 26 Jan 2025 The Stanford Internet Observatory was basically funded by the federal government to be a third-party censorship operation. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 The US Constitution requires Congress to authorize money to be spent by the executive branch. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 Under the current interpretation of appropriations, a president who does not want to spend appropriated money cannot decline to spend it. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Factual 26 Jan 2025 Getting Amish voters to the polls was one of the reasons Trump won the 2024 election. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 Incumbent universities, through accreditation, are in complete control of who gets access to federal student loan money. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Other
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen does not speak for DOGE and is not in charge of DOGE. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 The United States is the main place where the world's best and brightest foreign students get educated. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 The US is adding a trillion dollars to the national debt every 100 days, and it is now passing the size of the Defense Department budget and compounding. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 26 Jan 2025 The system that has been built for these people is paid for virtually 100% by taxpayer money. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen has made the argument in favour of high-skilled immigration and H-1B visas many times. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen joined the Facebook board in 2007. Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 16 Oct 2023 Markets are by far the most effective way to lift vast numbers of people out of poverty, and always have been. Factual · 16 Oct 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 16 Oct 2023 The Precautionary Principle was invented to prevent the large-scale deployment of civilian nuclear power. Factual · 16 Oct 2023 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Factual 16 Oct 2023 The only three sources of economic growth are population growth, natural resource utilization, and technology. Factual · 16 Oct 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 16 Oct 2023 In a market system, society captures about 98% of the value of technological innovation, a 50:1 ratio to the innovating company's share. Factual · 16 Oct 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2 Sep 2023 Richard Nixon created a project in 1972 called Project Independence, and proposed building 1,000 new US nuclear reactors. Factual · 2 Sep 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2 Sep 2023 In the research literature, IQ is typically linked to outcomes with a correlation of about 0.4 to 0.5. Factual · 2 Sep 2023 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 2 Sep 2023 Ray Kurzweil kind of took that idea to the next level and applied it specifically to AI. Factual · 2 Sep 2023 AI safety and alignment
Mostly false Factual 2 Sep 2023 The precautionary principle was developed by the German Greens in the 1970s. Factual · 2 Sep 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Prediction 2 Sep 2023 The EU may pass a law as soon as October 2023 that effectively bans AI inside the EU. Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 2 Sep 2023 That did not happen, after the President created the EPA and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which aimed to prevent it. Factual · 2 Sep 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2 Sep 2023 There will be Chinese AI systems that embody Communist ideology. Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 2 Sep 2023 Almost nothing is 40% causative of anything, apart from a very small number of exceptions. Factual · 2 Sep 2023 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 2 Sep 2023 AI development has a critical mass basically in two places in the world, the United States and China. Factual · 2 Sep 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Factual 12 Jun 2023 The Transformer algorithm, a neural net form that works in a sort of generalized way, was a recent theoretical breakthrough. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Mixed Factual 12 Jun 2023 AI development has a critical mass basically in two places in the world, the United States and China. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Factual 12 Jun 2023 The Transformer algorithm was invented in 2017. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly false Factual 12 Jun 2023 Research establishes that in human affairs, higher intelligence leads to better outcomes in essentially every measurable aspect of human welfare and life quality. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 12 Jun 2023 As of June 2023, the U.S. government was both alarmed about deepfakes and trying to outlaw blockchains. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI policy and governance
Mixed Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Andreessen said he was pretty confident that within roughly two years of June 2023, AI systems' limited persistent memory across sessions would be a solved problem. Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual 12 Jun 2023 As of June 2023 there are chip shortages throughout the AI ecosystem, and NVIDIA cannot make enough chips. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Prediction 12 Jun 2023 Andreessen said he thought the rate of AI technological improvement from mid-2023 onward would be very rapid. Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Factual 12 Jun 2023 Outside the San Francisco Bay Area, AI development is overwhelmingly in Beijing and Shanghai. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Factual 12 Jun 2023 Hundreds of studies' conclusions on the benefits of intelligence all correlate with fluid intelligence, the ability to rapidly assimilate knowledge and use it to solve problems. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Factual 12 Jun 2023 The AI being discussed is not, strictly speaking, human intelligence. Factual · 12 Jun 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 18 Apr 2020 Top-end universities can teach only a microscopic percentage of the 4 million new 18-year-olds in the US each year. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 18 Apr 2020 As of April 2020 there were no therapies or vaccine for the coronavirus, despite years of warnings about bat-borne coronaviruses. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Factual 18 Apr 2020 Energy experts say all carbon-based electrical power generation on the planet could be replaced by a few thousand new zero-emission nuclear reactors. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Technology
Mixed Factual 18 Apr 2020 American manufacturing output is higher than ever. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 18 Apr 2020 Milton Friedman said the great public sector mistake is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Factual 18 Apr 2020 The US government has never built a system to distribute money quickly to citizens and businesses when needed. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 18 Apr 2020 As of April 2020 the US lacked enough coronavirus tests and test materials, including cotton swabs and common reagents. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Other global risks
Mixed Factual 18 Apr 2020 As of April 2020 there were not enough ventilators, negative pressure rooms and ICU beds. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Other global risks
Mostly false Factual 18 Apr 2020 One-to-one tutoring can reliably increase education outcomes by two standard deviations (the Bloom two-sigma effect). Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Science and research methods
Resolved true Prediction 18 Apr 2020 The essay "It's Time to Build" will be the target of criticism. Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 18 Apr 2020 Things built in huge quantities, like computers and TVs, drop rapidly in price. Factual · 18 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen Horowitz has since reversed course almost completely and is now deeply invested in healthcare. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Supersonic passenger flight with the Concorde existed previously but no longer exists. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 A single individual can now build a self-driving car, whereas ten years ago it was a DARPA-funded research challenge. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 1 Jan 2018 In the American economy, the rate of job creation and destruction is falling rather than rising. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Gross job creation and destruction figures are not reported; the US destroys over 5 million jobs and creates over 6 million jobs per quarter. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 This new AI technology is the same technology Google's AI used to beat a human Go player. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Mostly false Factual 1 Jan 2018 The sesame scene in season one of Silicon Valley is loosely based on Peter Thiel. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Warren Buffett invested in Heinz ketchup. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 1 Jan 2018 When Andreessen arrived in Silicon Valley, the overwhelming mood was that the PC was finished and the Valley was probably done too. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 1 Jan 2018 In the three months after January 2018, the US economy will destroy more jobs than the World Economic Forum projected AI would destroy over the next five years. Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Roof inspection, which involves a person climbing up on a roof and taking notes, is a fairly dangerous job. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Peter Thiel flatly says the iPhone does not count as innovation. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Bitcoin is still working today exactly as it did in previous years, despite crashes. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen Horowitz initially made no healthcare-related investments. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen said "we" repeatedly see people fail because they price too low ("too hungry to eat") and so cannot afford the sales and marketing needed to get anybody to buy the product. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2018 Silicon Valley has become increasingly assertive in entering other industries directly, rather than only selling tools. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 1 Jan 2018 Andreessen Horowitz's portfolio companies are getting more assertive about entering markets that earlier founders may not have been willing to enter. Factual · 1 Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 28 May 2017 In 1992 it was widely held that the internet was for academics and nerds, with no use case for ordinary people. Factual · 28 May 2017 Technology
Mostly true Factual 28 May 2017 The University of Illinois, where Andreessen went to college, was then one of four US universities government-funded as hubs for NSFNET, which became the internet. Factual · 28 May 2017 Technology
Mostly false Factual 28 May 2017 ARPA (now DARPA) funded a military network originally conceived for nuclear command and control. Factual · 28 May 2017 Technology
Mixed Factual 20 Aug 2011 As of 2011, Amazon was the world's largest bookseller. Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 20 Aug 2011 As of August 2011, major public technology companies had all-time low price/earnings ratios. Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 20 Aug 2011 Skype, the fastest growing telecom company, was just bought by Microsoft for $8.5 billion. Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 20 Aug 2011 As of 2011, Netflix was the largest video service by number of subscribers. Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 20 Aug 2011 Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones. Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 Technology
Resolved true Factual 20 Aug 2011 Marc Andreessen said Disney had to buy Pixar, a software company, to remain relevant in animated movies. Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 20 Aug 2011 Videogame makers are today's fastest growing entertainment companies, with the industry growing to $60 billion from $30 billion five years earlier. Factual · 20 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Jun 1995 George Gilder predicts that within five to ten years the Internet will essentially be free. Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jun 1995 Netscape did not have a major sales force in Europe as of June 1995. Factual · Jun 1995 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Jun 1995 The government set the OSI networking standard, which nobody uses. Factual · Jun 1995 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual Jun 1995 Cryptography is export-controlled by the US government as a munition, and Netscape makes exportable versions of its software, which are the ones predominantly used on the Internet. Factual · Jun 1995 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual Jun 1995 The Internet already existed when Andreessen began working at the university lab, and everybody there used it. Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mostly true Factual Jun 1995 The networks in question all use TCP/IP, which was not a government standard. Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mostly true Prediction Jun 1995 Catalogs of Internet resources will be supported by advertising in the future. Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jun 1995 In June 1995, Andreessen said he thought Netscape had about six million Navigator users on the public network, not counting users behind firewalls. Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mixed Factual Jun 1995 Early in his time at the University of Illinois, Andreessen started working in a research lab at the university's physics research facility. Factual · Jun 1995 Their own work or organisation
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Marc Andreessen

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Factual AI policy and governance Political

“And that’s one of the reasons why Trump won.”

Marc Andreessen, interviewee 26 January 2025 Transcript for Marc Andreessen: Trump, Power, Tech, AI, Immigration & Future of America (Lex Fridman)

Getting Amish voters to the polls was one of the reasons Trump won the 2024 election.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

What would count as true or false

True: credible election analysis shows that turnout among Amish voters was meaningfully mobilised (for example, in Pennsylvania) and that their votes made a measurable difference to the result, for example by deciding a state that mattered in the Electoral College or by a margin large enough that analysts name it among the causes of Trump's 2024 win. Mostly true: Amish mobilisation was real and analysts list it as a minor factor that helped Trump. Mixed: Amish turnout rose but analysis is split or unclear on whether it affected any state result. Mostly false: there was a real mobilisation effort, but Amish votes were far too few to affect the outcome in any decisive state (for example, Trump's Pennsylvania margin was well above any plausible Amish contribution), so calling it a reason for the win overstates it. False: there was no significant increase in Amish turnout, or there was no meaningful mobilisation.

Evidence

  1. The True Story of Pennsylvania's Amish Vote - RealClearPennsylvania RealClearPennsylvania (article by Steven Nolt and Kyle Kopko, Elizabethtown College) · 25 March 2026
    “By our count, there were 2,568 Amish who voted in Lancaster County. We estimate that there were 17,490 voting-age Amish adults in Lancaster County in 2024, meaning that 14.68% of all Amish adults voted.”
  2. The True Story of Pennsylvania's Amish Vote - RealClearPennsylvania RealClearPennsylvania (article by Steven Nolt and Kyle Kopko, Elizabethtown College) · 25 March 2026
    “While every vote counts, given that President Trump won Pennsylvania by roughly 120,000 votes, the Amish were far from a decisive bloc of voters in this election.”
  3. Exclusive | How Trump won Pennsylvania’s Amish vote — with the help of missionaries and Elon Musk New York Post · 12 November 2024
    “By Burwell-Perry’s count, 200 community members shuttled about 26,000 people from Amish weddings to the polls to vote for Trump on Election Day — one of the highest turnouts the region has seen in recent history.”
  4. Exclusive | How Trump won Pennsylvania’s Amish vote — with the help of missionaries and Elon Musk New York Post · 12 November 2024
    “The Amish alone did not give Trump Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes. With 99% of the votes counted as of Monday evening, the Republican nominee led Vice President Kamala Harris by just over 144,000 votes.”

Reasoning

E3 reports a local effort that drove Amish voters to the polls in 2024, though its figure of about 26,000 people is Burwell-Perry's count. A later count by Elizabethtown College researchers found 2,568 Amish voters in Lancaster County, or 14.68% of voting-age Amish adults (E1). They conclude the Amish were "far from a decisive bloc" given Trump's Pennsylvania margin of about 120,000 votes (E2), and E4 likewise notes the Amish alone did not give Trump the state. So the mobilisation was real, but Amish votes were far too few to decide the result, which fits the mostly-false criterion.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “Getting Amish voters to the polls was one of the reasons Trump won the 2024 election.” (said 26 January 2025). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_80e889bd3e38, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_80e889bd3e38

Claims without a verdict

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