ClaimsPeople

Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham is an investor who co-founded the asset managers GMO and Batterymarch, is listed by GMO as its long-term investment strategist, and co-authored 'The Making of a Permabear'.

1,004 claims collected, 267 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 63 80

    Medium confidence, 42 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2007 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 53 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    56 46 67

    Medium confidence, 31 predictions resolved. From 10 documents, 2007 to 2023; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 93 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 17 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 65 (likely 59 to 72, high confidence), from 73 claims: 42 factual claims, 31 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Jeremy Grantham's claims

123 claims · page 1 of 2

123 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Factual 28 Jul 2025 For the first time in American history, the real estate, bond and stock markets are simultaneously in bubble territory. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 28 Jul 2025 Bonds currently offer the lowest interest rates in human history. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 28 Jul 2025 Thirty-one years after Japan's 1989 bubbles, Japanese land prices and stocks had not returned to their 1989 levels. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 28 Jul 2025 Emerging markets and value stocks trade at one of the two or three lowest relative valuation points in history compared to the U.S. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 28 Jul 2025 U.S. equities are a contender for the highest priced in history. Factual · 28 Jul 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 5 Jul 2023 Since ChatGPT and October-November 2022, there has been a new little flurry of market interest in AI that is very concentrated. Factual · 5 Jul 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual Jan 2023 Administrations aim to achieve this objective, and to do so they stimulate the economy 12 to 18 months earlier because the economy is large, complicated and has plenty of inertia. Factual · Jan 2023 AI policy and governance
Mixed Factual Jan 2023 In 1974 the US market turned up, after a 62% real decline over two years, exactly as the first Fed rate cut took place. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2023 GMO's Equity Dislocation strategy, long the cheapest U.S. stocks and short an equal amount of the most overpriced, delivered a double-digit positive return in 2022. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Jan 2023 From 1932 through 2012, the UK market had a bigger jump on the U.S. presidential cycle than the U.S. market did. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Jan 2023 Extreme bubble pricing in stocks has been confined to the US; other equity markets range from fair price to moderate overpricing. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2023 Every US recession in the past 50 years was preceded by a negative yield spread; there were no recessions without one. Factual · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 31 Aug 2022 A bear market rally is one of the common features of historical superbubbles. Factual · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 31 Aug 2022 Superbubbles first form, then suffer a setback with valuations taking a half-step back, as occurred in the first half of 2022. Factual · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 31 Aug 2022 Markets have just seen the bear market rally stage of the superbubble pattern. Factual · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 31 Aug 2022 Few superbubbles exist in history to study, and they share clear common features. Factual · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 31 Aug 2022 The summer 2022 stock rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern of the bear market rally that Grantham describes. Factual · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 8 Jan 2021 Bonds are even more expensive by historical comparison than stocks. Factual · 8 Jan 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 8 Jan 2021 As of early January 2021, the US stock market P/E ratio is in the top few percent of its historical range while the economy is in the worst few percent. Factual · 8 Jan 2021 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2020 The U.S. economy is currently in its worst 10% of historical conditions, perhaps even the worst 1%. Factual · 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2020 The most important drivers of the market's P/E ratio are profit margins and current inflation. Factual · 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2020 GMO calculated that a return to the old price trend plus a typical overrun in extreme house prices would remove $10 trillion of perceived wealth from U.S. consumers and guarantee the worst recession for decades. Factual · 2020 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2020 The S&P is in the top 10% of historical P/E ratios on prior earnings while the U.S. economy is in the worst 10% of economic situations, arguably the worst 1%. Factual · 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2020 The model's forecast of future fair P/E 10 assumes market profitability drops 30% and inflation and GDP volatility rise to 2008-like levels. Factual · 2020 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 2020 In Grantham's opinion, the U.S. trend GDP growth rate has fallen from over 3% a year to at best 1.5%. Factual · 2020 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2020 Grantham has been spending twice his usual total research time on the interactions between the virus, the economy and markets. Factual · 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2017 Donald Trump said a few anti-Fed things during the election campaign. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2017 Almost all serious economic declines have been associated with oil price surges, and the trend price of oil, based on the cost of finding new oil, is now about three and a half times the old price. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2017 In his early training period Grantham adopted Ben Graham's value-oriented biases. Factual · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2017 For about 20 years after 1996 the S&P 500 P/E ratio stayed high by 1935-1995 standards. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2017 Grantham used to call profit margins the most dependably mean-reverting series in finance. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2017 Grantham said the US market has been acting as if it is oscillating normally enough, but around a much higher average P/E. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2017 Value investors have for decades told momentum investors that the four most dangerous words are "This time is different." Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2017 The S&P 500 has sold at a much higher P/E level for 20 years, and this has not meant that better stock pickers have not won. Factual · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 7 Nov 2016 On November 7, 2016 the S&P 500 price was 8% below the 2-sigma level of 2300 calculated by GMO. Factual · 7 Nov 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Jan 2016 China uses a much larger fraction of total global minerals than it does of global oil. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Jan 2016 Near the 2000 peak Grantham challenged audiences, perhaps 2000 professionals in total, to find a bubble that had not fully broken, and he said no one offered one. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 In his previous quarterly letter written in January, Grantham said market commentators were too pessimistic on global stock markets, especially the U.S. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual Jan 2016 Grantham's 2011 resources report got many multiples of the hits of a typical GMO quarterly letter. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Jan 2016 Oil faces a short-term glut caused by U.S. fracking. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 Grantham had earlier warned of trouble if China quickly slowed its demand growth for minerals. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Factual Jan 2016 Mining stocks are the only group with a negative correlation to the rest of a portfolio over 10-year periods and very low correlation over 5 years. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 By the time China's demand growth for metals and coal stopped, miners had spent an unprecedented $1.25 trillion on expansion. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2016 In the last 30 years investors experienced 4 of perhaps the best 8 classic bubbles known to history. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2016 Over GMO's 28 years of asset allocation, most risk reduction for clients came in the 2000 and 2007 US bubbles, which GMO sidestepped to a considerable degree. Factual · 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2016 From late 2002 into 2006 the Fed raised rates by as much as 430 basis points as the economy recovered. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2016 Only mavericks spoke against the recent great bubbles; the economic and financial establishments backed them. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2016 Fed chairs Yellen, Bernanke and Greenspan overtly bragged about their success in driving asset prices, particularly stocks, higher. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2016 GMO considers a 60-65% equity position what it would hold in a normal world with everything fairly priced. Factual · 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 2016 Most of GMO's extra performance over 28 years came from ranking asset classes more correctly than not. Factual · 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2016 Many investors are willing to hold long-term government bonds guaranteeing zero real return rather than buy stocks. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2016 GMO's Benchmark-Free portfolio carries almost 50% equity or equity-like exposure. Factual · 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 2016 GMO does not expect its strategists or analysts to toe a party line. Factual · 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2016 Grantham said he believes the major input to lower rates has been a sustained US Fed policy, since just before 1995, of pushing down short-term rates. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2016 Almost all assets now return 2-2.5% less than they did in the 1955 to 1995 era. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2016 A 2-sigma deviation occurs every 44 years in a normally distributed world and every 35 years in the actual fat-tailed stock market. Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 3 Dec 2012 Decent senators won tight races against climate-denier opponents in seven of eight races Grantham's side concentrated on in 2012. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Mixed Factual 3 Dec 2012 Hurricane Sandy helped several climate-change-denier congressmen lose their seats in the 2012 election. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Resolved true Factual 3 Dec 2012 GMO is solvent and has stayed in business. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 3 Dec 2012 GMO has modeled momentum and value as two key variables for 33 years. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 3 Dec 2012 Grantham has assumed a 0.2% boost to growth from fracking over 18 years, forecasting up to 2030. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 3 Dec 2012 GMO called the US housing bubble perfectly, warning loudly on the way up. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 3 Dec 2012 US GDP grew about 3.4% a year for 100 years to about 1985, and two thirds of the time stayed within one standard deviation (+/-2.5%) of trend. Factual · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 In his 1998-1999 survey, over 99% of about 1100 analysts and portfolio managers believed there would be a major bear market, with only 7 voting that the P/E would not go back to 17. Factual · Apr 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2012 GMO's benchmark-free allocation strategy would have been badly beaten by aggressive portfolios during the 2000 tech bubble. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2012 GMO's Benchmark-Free Allocation Strategy did very well over the past decade because its big asset class bets won. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2012 GMO's Global Asset Allocation Strategy returned 5.4% net of fees with volatility of ±9.2% a year, 20% less than its benchmark. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Apr 2012 Robert Shiller's "fair value" series assumed perfect foresight of all future dividends. Factual · Apr 2012 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 Grantham said that his firm's not following the crowd in the late-1990s market, when P/E ratios reached 33 times in early 1999, was uncomfortably beyond the tolerance of about 40% of its clients. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 In his 1998-1999 survey of about 1100 equity professionals, every respondent agreed that S&P P/E falling from 28-35 to 17 would guarantee a major bear market. Factual · Apr 2012 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 GMO's asset allocation brainstorming team grew from 4 to 25 members over the five years to April 2012. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Apr 2012 GMO's calls on the Japan 65 P/E market and the 2000 U.S. tech bubble were 2 to 3 years early. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 GMO's allocation process has always depended on Ben Inker's portfolio management skills, particularly sizing and risk control. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Apr 2012 Keynes explained that to keep your job you must never, ever be wrong on your own. Factual · Apr 2012 Philosophy, ethics and society
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 GMO could sign no clients to its benchmark-free allocation approach until 2001. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 GMO's estimate of standard client patience time has been 3.0 years in normal conditions. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2012 Ben Inker has led GMO's asset allocation group for more than 10 years. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual Apr 2012 Grantham said he believes that this strategy, like roughly 90% of GMO's long-only strategies relative to their benchmarks, takes considerably less real risk. Factual · Apr 2012 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2011 In the 8 years to 2011, resource prices rose enough to undo the effects of the previous 100-year decline. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Apr 2011 China, with nearly 1.3 billion people, started doubling its economy every 10 years or less, starting around 21 years before 2011. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2011 Malthus's 1798 writing accurately described the past development of the human species. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Apr 2011 Commodity prices in general declined steadily throughout the 20th century. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual Apr 2011 Commodity marginal cost increases of about 2.0% a year were outweighed by annual productivity increases of 3.2% over the 20th century. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Apr 2011 None of these potential experts came within one billionth of 1% of the actual number, which is approximately 10^57. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Apr 2011 In April 2011, GMO said that, as far as it was able to determine and while noting it was not an expert in oil costs, the full cost of finding and delivering a major chunk of new oil was about $70 to $80 a barrel. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2011 Wood availability was probably the most limiting factor on world economic growth before hydrocarbons. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Apr 2011 Grantham's foundation is taking a small position, about one-quarter of its eventual target, in resources in the ground and resource efficiency. Factual · Apr 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2011 About 50% of China's GDP went into capital spending, partly as an effort to keep the economy afloat during the Western banking collapse. Factual · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Jul 2010 Grantham said that we have come close to some version of the Volcker rule. Factual · Jul 2010 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Factual Jul 2010 A 25% market decline in any six-month period has historically had about a 3% probability. Factual · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Jul 2010 Over the last 20 years the market has been mostly overpriced, occasionally spiking down to fair value. Factual · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Jul 2010 Non-greenhouse factors such as changes in solar output cannot alone explain the rise in global temperature over the past 50 years. Factual · Jul 2010 Other global risks
Own records only Factual Jul 2010 In 1985 Grantham's firm was ripped off by its then favorite broker on one of its early program trades. Factual · Jul 2010 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Jul 2010 Financial services made up 3% of GDP in 1965, and that decade was a strong candidate for the greatest economic decade of the 20th century. Factual · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Jul 2010 As of mid-2010, stock prices in the developed world, despite a strong recovery, are well below their highs of 10 years earlier and, notably in the U.S., are still overpriced. Factual · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jul 2010 A warmer atmosphere melts glaciers and ice sheets and causes global sea levels to rise. Factual · Jul 2010 Other global risks
Own records only Factual Oct 2009 The response to Grantham's revelation about resource scarcity and denial was nil, the first time since he started writing. Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Oct 2009 Most if not all banks that engage in proprietary trading now gather information from their institutional clients and exploit it. Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Oct 2009 GMO's neutral 65% equity position has been pulled back slightly to 62%. Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual Oct 2009 In March 2009 GMO believed its quality overweight was a winning bet against the market over its seven-year horizon. Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
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Jeremy Grantham

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Factual Economics and markets

“For the first time in American history, the real estate market, the bond market, and the stock market”

Jeremy Grantham, interviewed 28 July 2025 Jeremy Grantham: Navigating Bubble-Land (The Acquirer's Multiple)

For the first time in American history, the real estate, bond and stock markets are simultaneously in bubble territory.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 28 July 2025. The claim has two parts: (a) US real estate, bonds and stocks were all in bubble territory at once, and (b) this had never happened before in US history. Bubble territory means valuations at historical extremes on standard measures (e.g. Grantham's 2-sigma above-trend definition, CAPE, house price-to-income ratios, bond yields far below historical norms). True: all three met such a standard in July 2025, and no earlier period did so at the same time. Mostly true: both parts hold but one market sat just at the edge of the threshold. Mixed: all three were extreme but there was an earlier episode of the same (including the 2021-22 episode Grantham himself described as an 'everything bubble'), or only two of the three were extreme. Mostly false: only one market was clearly at bubble levels. False: valuations in most or all three markets were not historically extreme in July 2025 (e.g. bond yields at or above historical norms).

Evidence

  1. The Bubble Indicator: Is the Stock Market Overheating? Visual Capitalist · 14 February 2025
    “In December 2024, the S&P 500 CAPE ratio stood at 37.9—well above its long-term average of 17.6. Notably, it has only exceeded this level during the Dot-Com bubble and in 2021.”
  2. [PDF] Key Facts Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies · 24 June 2025
    “In 2024, the price-to-income ratio hit 5.0, on par with the record highs reached in 2022 and well above the prepandemic reading of 4.1 in 2019 (Figure 6 & Interactive).”
  3. Table Data - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED (St. Louis Fed)
    “| 2025-07-01 | 4.39 |”
  4. Table Data - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED (St. Louis Fed)
    “| 2021-05-01 | 1.62 |”

Reasoning

The evidence shows extreme stock and housing valuations in 2024 [E1][E2] and a July 2025 10-year yield of 4.39% [E3], but it does not place that yield against historical norms, so whether the bond market was at bubble levels is not settled. It also does not show all three markets extreme at the same earlier time, so neither path to the verdict is established.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “For the first time in American history, the real estate, bond and stock markets are simultaneously in bubble territory.” (said 28 July 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_0a99904eeb31, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0a99904eeb31

Claims without a verdict

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