ClaimsPeople

Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham is an investor who co-founded the asset managers GMO and Batterymarch, is listed by GMO as its long-term investment strategist, and co-authored 'The Making of a Permabear'.

1,004 claims collected, 267 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 63 80

    Medium confidence, 42 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2007 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 53 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    56 46 67

    Medium confidence, 31 predictions resolved. From 10 documents, 2007 to 2023; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 93 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 17 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 65 (likely 59 to 72, high confidence), from 73 claims: 42 factual claims, 31 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Jeremy Grantham's claims

267 claims · page 3 of 3

267 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Own records only Factual Jul 2010 In 1985 Grantham's firm was ripped off by its then favorite broker on one of its early program trades. Factual · Jul 2010 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction Jul 2010 GMO's seven-year forecast suggests a global equity portfolio can be built returning just over 6% a year plus inflation. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jul 2010 Global warming will be the most important investment issue for the foreseeable future. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jul 2010 Grantham said it was fairly clear that a weak economy and declining or flat prices were the prospect for the immediate future. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction Jul 2010 Developed countries will be lucky to reach 2% annual growth over the roughly seven years from 2009. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jul 2010 With progress in human genome research, breathtakingly expensive ways to reduce very rare diseases, hard to ration or resist, will soon appear. Prediction · Jul 2010 Technology
Mostly true Factual Jul 2010 Financial services made up 3% of GDP in 1965, and that decade was a strong candidate for the greatest economic decade of the 20th century. Factual · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Jul 2010 As of mid-2010, stock prices in the developed world, despite a strong recovery, are well below their highs of 10 years earlier and, notably in the U.S., are still overpriced. Factual · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jul 2010 He says that a 25% probability for a route he described last quarter for the market and economy would now seem generous. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jul 2010 Some further decline in house prices is probably more than a 50/50 bet in the U.S., and nearly certain in the U.K. and Australia. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jul 2010 A warmer atmosphere melts glaciers and ice sheets and causes global sea levels to rise. Factual · Jul 2010 Other global risks
Own records only Factual Oct 2009 The response to Grantham's revelation about resource scarcity and denial was nil, the first time since he started writing. Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Oct 2009 Most if not all banks that engage in proprietary trading now gather information from their institutional clients and exploit it. Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Oct 2009 GMO's seven-year forecast has quality stocks returning 7 percentage points more than the S&P 500, or 9 points more than the non-quality remainder. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Oct 2009 GMO's neutral 65% equity position has been pulled back slightly to 62%. Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction Oct 2009 All overpriced markets will eventually mean revert, leaving most institutions with withdrawal symptoms. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Oct 2009 In March 2009 GMO believed its quality overweight was a winning bet against the market over its seven-year horizon. Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham guessed that the US market would drop below fair value, which he put at a 22% decline from the S&P 500 level of 1098 on October 19, 2009. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Oct 2009 GMO reinvested in March 2009 to be almost neutral in equities and recently took a few chips off the table. Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Oct 2009 By 2006 the US CEO-to-average-worker pay ratio had risen to between 400/1 and 600/1. Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Oct 2009 The October 2009 letter refers to underweighting emerging equity "last summer" just in time to avoid its two-month 40% freefall; the extracted text is jumbled, and it does not make clear whether this describes a move GMO made or one Grantham said it would have been good to make. Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction Oct 2009 In October 2009, Grantham wrote that it still seemed a safe bet that seven lean years lay ahead. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham said his personal view was that a major China stumble in the next three years or so was maybe only a one in three chance, but was still the most likely important unpleasant surprise of the fundamental economic variety. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Oct 2009 As of October 2009 the size of the financial system continues to grow and shows every sign of being out of control. Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Oct 2009 By failing to learn from the crisis, the US is probably condemning itself to another serious financial crisis in the not-too-distant future. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Oct 2009 The body under discussion (referred to only as "it") did not rise to the occasion to limit the recklessness of Fannie and Freddie. Factual · Oct 2009 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction Oct 2009 GMO forecasts seven-year real returns below 1.25% a year for bonds other than emerging. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Oct 2009 By 2007 the share had risen to 7.5% of GDP; the surrounding text also mentions a figure of 3%, but does not say what year it refers to or what sector the share describes. Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham said he expected developed markets to grow moderately less fast, at about 2.25%, for the next chunk of time, and to look pretty anemic compared with emerging countries growing at twice that rate. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Oct 2009 GMO's best forecast, for the 10 years ending October 2008, had a 1 in 100,000 chance of being just luck. Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction Oct 2009 The rising market will be stopped, by Grantham's blind guess in the first few months of 2010, by a combination of factors. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Oct 2009 Less than a year before October 2009, the banks behind that year's record bonus pool, estimated at about $23 billion, had been on the edge of a run on the bank. Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Oct 2009 As the financial system grows it becomes a bigger drain on the rest of the economy and slows it down. Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Oct 2009 GMO has over 70 seven-year forecast estimates since 1994 and every one ranked asset classes better than random. Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham said he believed emerging market equities were well on the way to the 'emerging emerging bubble' he described about 18 months earlier, in his 1Q 2008 Quarterly Letter. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Oct 2009 Grantham guessed that before the end of 2010 the US market would fall painfully (which he defined as at least 15%) from its October 2009 levels. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Oct 2009 Without the measure Grantham was discussing, which the surrounding text does not name, "we shall surely fail again." Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Oct 2009 Quality stocks have slightly outperformed the market over the 40 years to 2009, per GMO's Exhibit 2. Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Promise Oct 2009 GMO plans to post its entire set of forecasts to its website with some preliminary analysis of the results. Promise · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Oct 2009 In 1930 there was no extra liquidity flowing around and absolutely no moral hazard. Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Oct 2009 GMO's seven-year forecast return for the S&P 500 is well below 3%, while the high-quality subset is still handsome. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Oct 2009 The irony may well be that strong economic data in 2010 is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Oct 2009 The US market will not need to fall below the February 2009 low of 666 in the coming decline. Prediction · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Oct 2009 Goldman Sachs presents a potential hedge fund trade to clients as attractive because Goldman has already chosen to make that trade itself. Factual · Oct 2009 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Oct 2009 In equity accounts GMO kept a massive overweight in quality stocks. Factual · Oct 2009 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction Apr 2007 Because no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the financial system when the bubble bursts are likely to be unexpected. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2007 Forestry holdings are an example where the diversifying effect alone has dramatically changed pricing. Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2007 Institutional shift into expensive hedge fund vehicles may lower returns available to existing long-only managers with positive alpha. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual Apr 2007 Good or excellent economic fundamentals combined with tightening credit often result in a falling market. Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2007 Hedge fund money is leveraged several times and turns over far more frequently than traditional money. Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Apr 2007 Markets are likely to be in for a bumpy ride after April 2007. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2007 The most extreme relative overpricing in coming years should be at the intersection of high-risk and exotic diversification drivers. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Apr 2007 The bursting of the bubble will hit all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2007 As of April 2007, real estate, stocks and bonds all measure expensive against their own histories and against replacement cost where calculable. Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2007 Global profit margins, currently far above average, will come down. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2007 Private equity grew even faster than hedge funds over the three years before April 2007. Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Apr 2007 The heart of the current bubble is probably private equity. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Apr 2007 In 10 years the current bubble may well be described as the private equity bubble, as 2000 is thought of as the internet bubble. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Apr 2007 Grantham says GMO has not found any case where excellent fundamentals and generous cheap liquidity coexisted without producing a bubble. Factual · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2007 For slow-moving managers who do not exit quickly by unloading their company, default will probably be common. Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Apr 2007 In May 2006 emerging markets declined by 25% in three weeks, during what was fundamentally their best year in history. Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Apr 2007 When the bubble bursts, the Fed and overseas equivalents will move to contain the economic damage, as the Fed did after the 2000 break. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Apr 2007 GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual Apr 2007 As of April 2007, Grantham personally holds a short position in copper. Factual · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2007 Infrastructure is the most recent investment area to attract rapid increases in capital, partly because other opportunities became overpriced. Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2007 Markets are probably in for an extended period of mispricing, usually favoring trendy assets, with sometimes dramatic reactions. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2007 U.S. blue chips and U.S. bonds will mostly be priced lower relative to fair value than the trendier newer asset classes. Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
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Jeremy Grantham

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Factual Their own work or organisation

“One of my nastiest shocks in 45 years was the realization one day in 1985 that we had been ripped off by our then favorite broker on one of the early program trades we were doing.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder, writing in GMO Quarterly Letter July 2010 GMO Quarterly Letter July 2010 Summer Essays (GMO)

In 1985 Grantham's firm was ripped off by its then favorite broker on one of its early program trades.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

A private episode about the firm's broker in 1985; only the firm's records would show it.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “In 1985 Grantham's firm was ripped off by its then favorite broker on one of its early program trades.” (said July 2010). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_6ecaf04ceee4, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6ecaf04ceee4

Claims without a verdict

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