Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair.

This is judged on the outcome. TRUE if Keith Ellison was elected chair of the Democratic National Committee in 2017. FALSE if someone else was elected DNC chair in 2017. MOSTLY FALSE if Ellison received a different DNC leadership post (for example deputy chair) but not the chair. No other partial verdicts apply.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Ellison loses bid to lead Democrats, will stay in Congress Minnesota Star Tribune · 26 February 2017

   “ATLANTA – Former Labor Secretary Tom Perez narrowly beat U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison on Saturday to lead the Democratic Party in its fight against President Donald Trump, leaving Ellison to return to his job as a Minnesota congressman.”

2. E2 Ellison loses bid to lead Democrats, will stay in Congress Minnesota Star Tribune · 26 February 2017

   “Perez was elected on the second ballot at the meeting of Democratic Party leaders, capturing 235 votes to 200 for Ellison.”

3. E3 Tom Perez wins DNC chair, names Keith Ellison deputy, after race that included focus on Jewish issues Jewish Telegraphic Agency · 25 February 2017

   “Tom Perez, the former Labor Department secretary, was elected Democratic National Committee chairman and immediately named his rival, Rep. Keith Ellison, as his deputy.”

Tom Perez beat Keith Ellison in the February 2017 vote for DNC chair (E1), 235 votes to 200 on the second ballot (E2). Right after the vote, Perez named Ellison his deputy chair (E3). The criteria call for "mostly false" when Ellison got a different DNC leadership post but not the chair, so that is the verdict.