Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect.

This is judged over February 2018 to the end of 2023, against what was expected of Cruz in early 2018 (a Texas senator who had lost the 2016 nomination and faced re-election). True: Cruz became clearly more prominent than that baseline. Examples would be winning the presidential nomination or a top Senate leadership post, being a leading contender (polling first or second) for a presidential nomination, or being among the most-covered national political figures for long periods. Mostly true: he had several sustained stretches of unusually high national prominence that commentators described as a resurgence, but did not take a new major role. Mixed: there were short spikes of attention (such as controversies) but overall prominence stayed about the same as expected. Mostly false: his prominence stayed at or below the 2018 baseline, with only minor episodes. False: he clearly faded in national prominence or left national politics.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Ted Cruz endorses Donald Trump for president The Texas Tribune · 16 January 2024

   “U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, endorsed Donald Trump to be the Republican presidential nominee Tuesday evening after facing pressure from the former president to back his reelection campaign.”

2. E2 Will Ted Cruz run for president in 2024? The Week · 25 October 2022

   “4 percent of registered voters planning to vote in the 2024 Republican primary told The New York Times they'd vote for Cruz if the contest were held today.”

3. E3 Ted Cruz’s next reelection path looks smoother with Beto O’Rourke behind him The Texas Tribune · 30 March 2023

   “Cruz’s own celebrity status has only further solidified since the 2018 election. He is a regular fixture in conservative media circles, never shying from the Fox News hit, and has run for the past three years his own podcast, “Verdict with Ted Cruz.””

4. E4 Sen. Cruz: Another Great Year of Fighting and Winning for Texans | U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas Office of U.S. Senator Ted Cruz · 31 December 2023

   “This year, I’ve had the privilege of leading my Republican colleagues as ranking member on the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.”

E3 (March 2023) says Cruz's celebrity status had 'only further solidified' since 2018, pointing to regular Fox News appearances and his own podcast. That shows continued visibility, but it is not described as a resurgence beyond expectations. E2 (October 2022) shows him at only 4 percent in 2024 Republican primary polling, so he was not a leading contender. E4, from his own Senate office, shows he became ranking member of the Commerce Committee, which is not a top Senate leadership post, and E1 shows him endorsing Trump rather than running himself. Taken together, he remained prominent and his media profile grew somewhat [E3], but the evidence shows no leading presidential candidacy [E1][E2], no top leadership post [E4], and no resurgence well beyond expectations.