Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge the predicted outcome as of 2018-12-31. True: Donald Trump was still serving as US president on 2018-12-31, and his January 2018 predictions post gives this event at 95%. False: Trump was not president on that date. Mostly true: Trump was president on that date but the stated probability in the source differs slightly (for example 90%). Mostly false: Trump was president but the source contains no such prediction, or gives a materially different probability.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
-
E1 Digest of Other White House Announcements U.S. Government Publishing Office (govinfo.gov, Compilation of Presidential Documents) · 31 December 2018
“December 31, 2018”
-
E2 Digest of Other White House Announcements GovInfo (U.S. Government Publishing Office), digest of the Office of the Press Secretary's announcements · 31 December 2018
“The following list includes the President's public schedule and other items of general interest announced by the Office of the Press Secretary and not included elsewhere in this Compilation.”
-
E3 Donald Trump ends 2018 with a Fox News interview — his 41st since inauguration WRAL (news site, per URL; no separate publisher name on the fetched text) · 31 December 2018
“President Trump is ringing in the new year with his friends at Fox News — literally.”
Reasoning
E5 is a WRAL report dated 2018-12-31 that calls Trump "President Trump" as he rang in the new year, which shows he was still president at the end of 2018. E4 and E2, the GPO's 2018 digest of the President's announcements, includes a December 31, 2018 section and is consistent with this. None of the evidence quotes Scott Alexander's post, so the 95% figure rests on the claim's own quoted text. Taking that quote as accurate, the predicted outcome happened.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018.” (said January 2018). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_686d59899fe7, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_686d59899fe7
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Scott Alexander
-
Mixed
“Also, I predict we see a lot more of Ted Cruz than people are expecting.”
Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect.
-
Mostly true
“The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.”
The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.
-
Resolved true
“Mueller does not indict Trump: 70%”
-
Resolved true
“The European Union will not collapse.”
-
Mostly false
“Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair: 70%”
Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.